‘Bad News Europe’ is back in the headlines and the euro is trading at a three and a half month low. European contagion concerns appear to be bearish for the euro currency, but technical analysis provides a different outlook.
Negative European news just made their first media appearance of 2013 and the prospect of a Cypriot bailout sent the euro currency to the lowest level since December 10, 2012.
Renewed concerns about the euro zone sound bearish for the euro, but technical analysis suggests the euro currency is ripe for a (temporary) comeback.
The chart below tracks the euro since the July 2012 low. It also shows some of the trend lines and support/resistance levels the Profit Radar Report uses to pinpoint highs/lows and reversals.
The February 2013 high coincided exactly with parallel trend channel resistance. On January 30, the Profit Radar Report warned that: “The headwind is getting strong. A close below 1.3488 will be the first sign of an impending correction.”
This was followed up on February 3 by the observation that: “The euro spiked to the upper parallel channel on Friday, a potential stopping point for this rally.”
The euro has fallen precipitously since. Today’s drop created a green candle low which was unconfirmed by RSI – a bullish RSI divergence.
A bullish RSI divergence in itself doesn’t mean the euro won’t fall any further, but two multi-year support levels (solid and dashed green line) suggest that the down side for the euro should be limited.
The CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE) is a currency ETF that tracks the euro currency closely and provides easily accessible long exposure to the euro.
A word of caution, it appears that the upcoming euro rally will only retrace a portion of the previously lost points and may not reach new recovery highs.
We also note that the euro dropped to a new multi-month low, while the US dollar didn’t eclipse last weeks high. I’m not sure what this divergence means, but it’s reason to take a cautious approach.
Regardless of this divergence and the next moves longevity, simple RSI and support/resistance level analysis like this identifies low-risk trade set ups and the risk management levels needed to spot an attractive risk/reward ratio trade.
The Profit Radar Report analyzes the S&P 500, euro, dollar, gold, silver, Treasuries and other indexes/ETFs to provide low-risk and high probability trade setups.