Party Over for Nasdaq QQQ, AAPL, AMZN?

Tech stocks have been on fire before hitting an ‘air pocket’ last week. Is the current dip the end of the tech party or a buying opportunity?

After pointing out Fibonacci resistance (for QQQ) at 143.75, the May 31 Profit Radar Report noted that: “The Nasdaq-100 painted a bearish reversal candle today. Every red candle high (since October 2013) saw lower prices at some point over the next 1-2 weeks.”

Seven days after the May 31 bearish reversal candle, the Nasdaq suffered a monster reversal candle. Volume (for QQQ) soared to a 2017 record. The June 9 ‘red stick’ erased 10 days of gains.

On that day, more than one third of the 100 QQQ ETF components suffered a buying climax (where a stock rallies to a new 52-week high, but ends down for the week). Buying climaxes are generally a sign of distribution and indicate that stocks are moving from strong to weak hands.

Similar buying climaxes in 2010, 2014, and 2015 led to noteworthy pullbacks.

The problem with extreme ‘air pocket’ days (like June 9) is that they almost instantly create an oversold condition, and the propensity for a bounce.

Next support for QQQ is at 137.20 – 135.70. Resistance is around 141. Support may cause another bounce, but risk of further losses remains elevated as long as QQQ is below 141.

AAPL

Due to its humungous market cap, AAPL is Wall Streets’ VIP and MVP stock. More often than not, if AAPL sneezes, the S&P 500, Nasdaq and at times DJIA will catch a cold.

Based on the long-term black trend channel(s), we determined that up side for AAPL (and indexes like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq) was limited after hitting 155 in May.

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Support worth watching is around 140 and 135.

AMZN

The May 29 Profit Radar Report stated: “AMZN almost cracked the 1,000 mark, which more than anything is a psychological ‘resistance’ level. Cycles project a severe drop for AMZN. Last time this happened (late 2015), AMZN reacted late, but ultimately dropped around 30%. Although more gains are possible, late buyers will probably end up regretting their decision.”

Since May 29, AMZN gained as much as 2%, but subsequently dropped as much as 8.8%, before finding support around 925 (green line). 925 and support near the black trend channel deserve to be watched. It would take a move above 991 to unlock the potential for new highs.

Summary

Based on our research, we don’t expect to see a major market top at this time, but QQQ, AAPL and AMZN are likely to enter a period of consolidation and quite possible some ‘shake out’ moves designed to shake out weak hands.

The Profit Radar Report’s goal is to simplify investing decisions, avoid big losses and spot high probability, low-risk trades. The Profit Radar Report hasn’t suffered a losing trade since June 2015.

A comprehensive analysis for the S&P 500 is available here: Comprehensive S&P 500 Update

Simon Maierhofer is the founder of iSPYETF and the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. Barron’s rated iSPYETF as a “trader with a good track record” (click here for Barron’s profile of the Profit Radar Report). The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013, 17.59% in 2014, and 24.52% in 2015.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

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