2021 S&P 500 Forecast, Bitcoin, Gold


Subscribers to iSPYETF’s free e-mail newsletter receive a market outlook, usually once a week. The market outlook below was sent out on January 21. If you’d like to sign up for the free e-newsletter, you may do so here (we will never share your e-mail with anyone, just as we don’t accept advertising).

Here’s your ‘broken record’ moment of the day: The tug-of-war between extreme sentiment and breadth continues as stocks grind higher (2 steps forward, 1 step back).

If you’re not yet familiar with this epic, never before seen tug-of-war, it was explained here on December 1 with the following conclusion:

Normally the combination of historic investor optimism while stocks are pressing against long-term resistance is a recipe for disaster. But, as the above studies show, strong stock market internals are likely to over-power other risk factors.

Our approach has been, and continues to be: Higher prices are likely as long as support holds.

But, extreme euphoria brings risk of a nasty pullback, so I’m also trying to discern where that risk potential might turn into reality.

The dashed trend channel center line could be a ‘pressure point’ for the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM).

The detailed 2021 S&P 500 Forecast includes an actual S&P 500 price projection for 2021 based on the following factors:

  • Breadth & liquidity
  • Technical analysis (support/resistance & Elliott Wave Theory)
  • Investor sentiment
  • Seasonality & cycles
  • Valuations
  • Risk/Reward Heat Map

The latest gold analysis is available here.

The January 6 Profit Radar Report included the Bitcoin chart below along with this warning:

Bitcoin has gone parabolic, and Bitcoin futures jumped another 16.7% on Sunday afternoon. If Sunday’s pop holds, price will open above the blue trend channel on Monday, which will then act as support (around 33,000). The rally has taken the shape of a bowl (green line) and I don’t recall a ‘bowl-shaped’ rally that didn’t end badly. Based on Elliott Wave Theory, any upcoming pullback could be ‘only’ a wave 4 and not as strong as in 2018, but nevertheless, any remaining gains come with the risk of a quick 20-40% pullback.”

Bitcoin Futures are down some 30% and price is threatening to fall below the blue channel. While there is more down side risk, there’s a good chance Bitcoin will recover to new highs once this correction is over.

Continued updates and the new 2021 S&P 500 Forecast are available via the Profit Radar Report

The Profit Radar Report comes with a 30-day money back guarantee, but fair warning: 90% of users stay on beyond 30 days.

Barron’s rates iSPYETF a “trader with a good track record,” and Investor’s Business Daily writes “Simon says and the market is playing along.”S&P

Gold Forecast

After quite a rollercoaster ride, gold prices are exactly where they were six months ago. More interesting than the 6-month trip to nowhere is that gold has given up all the (blow off top?) July/August 2020 gains (red box). 

Does that mean gold is ready to rally once again?

I did not expect to see gold surge over 250 points into the August 6 2020 high, but wan’t surprised to see the subsequent losses. 

I published the NYSE Gold Miners Index chart below in the July 29, 2020 Profit Radar Report along with the red resistance line and times when 90% of gold miner index stocks were above their 50-and 200-day SMAs with more than 50% of them at a 52-week high (dashed red lines). 2 months later, the Gold Miners Index was down 75% of the time.

Barron’s rates iSPYETF as “trader with a good track record” and Investor’s Business Daily says: “When Simon says, the market listens.”  Find out why Barron’s and IBD endorse Simon Maierhofer’s Profit Radar Report

The August 19, 2020 Profit Radar Report compared the latest gold rally with the 10 most closely correlated gold rallies. The chart below plotted the corresponding forward returns. As the performance tracker (bottom bar) shows, 2 month later gold was up only 10% of the time, 3 and 6 month later only 30% of the time.

Past performance is no guarantee of future performance, but the correlation study has proven to be very insightful and accurate. 

Long-term, gold could be forming the handle (blue box) of a bullish cup and handle formation (like 1980 – 2009) as illustrated in this chart (published in the August 16, 2020 Profit Radar Report).

Mid-term, gold fell below the April 14, 2020 high, which invalidates a bullish 5-wave Elliott Wave Theory pattern from the March 16, 2020 low. 

While another bounce is likely once this leg lower is complete, confidence in a new all-time high within the first half of 2021 is sub-par.

Continuous updates are available via the Profit Radar Report.

Simon Maierhofer is the founder of iSPYETF and the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. Barron’s rated iSPYETF as a “trader with a good track record” (click here for Barron’s evaluation of the Profit Radar Report). The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates.

Follow Simon on Twitter @iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF e-Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

S&P 500 Update


Subscribers to iSPYETF’s free e-mail newsletter receive a market outlook, usually once a week. The market outlook below was sent out on January 7. If you’d like to sign up for the free e-newsletter, you may do so here (we will never share your e-mail with anyone, just as we don’t accept advertising).

I enjoy helping people make educated investment decisions. To be educated one needs to have data (=knowledge) and interpret that data without being clouded by emotions or biases.

The Profit Radar Report filters a ton of data in an effort to discern the stock market’s next move. As this newsletter mentioned, there are times when future implications of the examined data are pointing in different directions.

This just happened in December. Almost every study based on stock market breadth projected rising prices and almost every study based on red-hot sentiment projected lower prices (I called this an epic tug-of-war).

Many of those studies were published in this December 1 article: Stock Market Risk is Clashing against Historical Strong Reward Potential.

My data-based conclusion at the time was as follows: “Normally the combination of historic investor optimism while stocks are pressing against long-term resistance is a recipe for disaster. But, as the above studies show, strong stock market internals are likely to over-power other risk factors.”

Since December 1, 2020, the S&P 500 has slowly risen from 3,660 to 3,800 … but internal breadth actually deteriorated.

The chart below (published in the December 30 Profit Radar Report) plots the S&P 500 against the NYSE up volume ratio (5-day SMA, which shows how much volume goes into advancing vs declining stocks).

Throughout December, the S&P moved higher while the up volume ratio declined. About 50% of the time that led to an immediate nasty pullback (red bars) but other times price continued higher (green boxes).

Interestingly, investors lost some of their bullishness the last 2 weeks of December (see gray graph, which is a composite of sentiment gauges). In other words, the tug-of-war tension eased a bit and allowed for further gains.

Even though overall bullish, the Risk/Reward Heat Map just saw an up tick in risk for January and February.

For this risk potential to turn into reality, however, the S&P 500 needs to drop below the green trend line. Price can continue to grind higher as long as it stays above.

Even though 2020 has brought unprecedented stock market action, there are actually a number of years that have shown a very similar general trajectory (see chart below).

The soon to be published 2021 S&P 500 Forecast will show how the S&P performed after years with a similar trajectory.

Continued updates and the new 2021 S&P 500 Forecast are available via the Profit Radar Report

The Profit Radar Report comes with a 30-day money back guarantee, but fair warning: 90% of users stay on beyond 30 days.

Barron’s rates iSPYETF a “trader with a good track record,” and Investor’s Business Daily writes “Simon says and the market is playing along.”

Stock Market Risk is Clashing Against Historically Strong Reward Potential


Back in January 2020, I noticed a tug-of-war between extreme optimism (bearish for stocks) and bullish market momentum. As so often, euphoria was followed by dispair.

The pandemic has not left, but stock market euphoria is back, and this time optimism it’s clashing against internal stock market strength. Welcome to tug-of-war 2.0. Will sentiment cause the stock market to spiral down again? 

Extreme Investor Optimism

The chart below shows just a few of the dozens of investor sentiment gauges I follow regularly. Aside from the VIX, all of them are in the extreme optimism danger zone.

130-year Trend Line Resistance

In addition to sentiment extremes, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is once again bumping against a 130-year old trend line, like it did in February 2020.

Based on those two factors, risk is very high. But, there are more than just 2 factors to consider.

Internal Strength

Various Profit Radar Report noticed historically extreme bouts of buying pressure after the March 2020 low. The forward performance trackers at the bottom of the studies highlight why studies from earlier this year are still applicableL

  • June 10, 2020 Profit Radar Report:

Bullish study: On June 5 and 8, 90% of NYSE trading volume went into advancing stocks. Since 1970, there were only 4 other times that saw 2 consecutive 90% up days. The chart below plots the forward performance of those instances (forward returns and odds of positive returns are shown via the bottom panel).

Barron’s rates iSPYETF as “trader with a good track record” and Investor’s Business Daily says: “When Simon says, the market listens.”  Find out why Barron’s and IBD endorse Simon Maierhofer’s Profit Radar Report

  • July 12, 2020 Profit Radar Report:

Below is a look at the fastest S&P 500 rallies (1970 – today). To qualify for inclusion, price had to rise at least 20% in less than 3 months. This happened 12 other times (twice in 1982 and 2009, but only the first instances of those years are shown via chart below).

The 2020 rally (red graph) has been by far the quickest and strongest. The dashed blue line marks ‘today’ (78 days into the rally). Here are some key takeaways:

– The S&P is currently up 42.35%, which is already above the 40.43% average 12-month return.
– The strong rallies of 1982 and 2009 took a breather during the summer.
– With the exception of 1986, the S&P 500’s 12 month return was higher than the day 78  return every time.”

  • August 9, 2020 Profit Radar Report:

Since 1970, the S&P 500 dropped more than 30% and thereafter rallied within 2% of its all-time high 5 other times. On average, the roundtrip from ATH to within 2% of ATH after a 30% decline took 60 months. This time it took only 6 months.

The chart below shows the forward performance of the S&P 500 after it first came within 2% of its prior ATH (after a >30% decline). Aside from the 1980 rally, future returns were generally positive, but every time, any gains were either erased or as good as erased about 4 months later (dashed red line).

  • November 15, 2020 Profit Radar Report:

“Various recent PRRs noted a resurgence of buying pressure (i.e. October 11 PRR. Not to beat a dead horse, but here is one more: On November 2, 3, 5, 9, 80% or more of NYSE volume went into rising stocks. This was the 10th time since 1970 that 4 of 6 days saw >80% up volume (11/13/20 was another >80% up volume day).

The forward performance after the prior instances is plotted out below (2010 and 2011 actually hosted 2 of 4 of 6 80% up days events, but  only the forward performance for the respective second event is shown). Over the next 4 months, 4 of 10 instances showed losses of 7-11%, but 6, 9 and 12 months later the S&P 500 was up every time.”

The performance tracker at the bottom of each study provides forward returns for the next 1, 2, 3, 6, 9, 12 months. The Risk/Reward Heat Map captures the data and provides a visual heat map of month by month risk vs reward for the next year.

Conclusion

Normally the combination of historic investor optimism while stocks are pressing against long-term resistance is a recipe for disaster. But, as the above studies show, strong stock market internals are likely to over-power other risk factors if the main indexes break and stay above resistance.

Become the best informed investor you know by reading the Profit Radar Report.

Stock Market Signals Are Piling Up

Subscribers to iSPYETF’s free e-mail newsletter receive a market outlook, usually once a week. The market outlook below was sent out on November 19. If you’d like to sign up for the free e-newsletter, you may do so here.

A ton has happened the last two weeks, but you wouldn’t know it by looking at the S&P 500 chart. The post-election/vaccine news pop (Nov 9) pushed price above the red resistance line for a couple hours, but that’s it.

Despite the continued S&P 500 (and Nasdaq) trading range, there’ve actually been a number of historically rare signals … elsewhere or under the hood. 

Signal 1: The percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day SMA has cycled from below 10% to above 80% (currently 88%, the highest reading since January 2020). Over the past 20 years, this has happened only 4 other times.

The chart below plots the S&P 500 against the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day SMA. The 10% and 80% level are marked in red and green. The exact forward performance (graph and table) after the signal triggered was published in the November 15 Profit Radar Report. 

Signal 2: It took over 26 months, but the Russell 2000 finally exceeded its 2018 high. Over the past 35 years, the Russell 2000 set a new all-time high after a correction that lasted at least a year seven other times. 

The green boxes highlight similar recoveries. The November 18 Profit Radar Report published the exact forward performance (graph and table) when the Russell 2000 did the same thing in the past. 

Signal 3: On November 2, 3, 5, 9, 80% or more of NYSE volume went into advancing stocks. Over the past 50 years, up volume exceeded 80% on 4 of 6 trading days only 7 other times.

How did the S&P 500 do after similar ‘volume thrusts’? The November 15 Profit Radar Report showed the exact forward performance (graph and table) after the last 7 times this happened.

What’s the benefit of knowing the forward performance of past signals?

The Profit Radar Report shows the performance for the next 1, 2, 3, 6, 9 and 12 month along with odds of positive returns for each time frame. This allows investors to gage future risk and reward based on similar setups.

There is much noise, but when the market delivers 3 historically rare signals in a short period of time, it’s usually worth listening.

Continued updates along with the most likely long-term forward path for the S&P 500 (this was just published) are available via the Profit Radar Report

The Profit Radar Report comes with a 30-day money back guarantee, but fair warning: 90% of users stay on beyond 30 days.

Barron’s rates iSPYETF a “trader with a good track record,” and Investor’s Business Daily writes “Simon says and the market is playing along.”

Will the ‘Election Pop’ Last?

Subscribers to iSPYETF’s free e-mail newsletter receive a market outlook, usually once a week. The market outlook below was sent out on November 5. If you’d like to sign up for the free e-newsletter, you may do so here.

Will the ‘Election Pop’ Last?

Wednesday delivered the biggest post presidential election Tuesday pop ever! The S&P 500 gained 2.2%, yet only 45% of NYSE volume went into advancing stocks and only 55% of NYSE-traded stocks actually closed the day higher. 

This is another first. Since 1970, the S&P has never rallied more than 2% with less than 50% of volume moving into advancing stocks. Interesting times! 

Anyway, going back to the post-election pop: Of the 22 presidential elections since 1932, the S&P 500 was up the day after election Tuesday, 10 times, and down 12 times. The chart and performance tracker below shows the forward performance after the 5 post-election up days since 1970. 

Conversely, when the S&P 500 was down the day after election Tuesday, the forward performance was negative 75% of the time 2 weeks later and 50% of the time 3 months later. So a good first day has generally been a good omen (in a pandemic-free world). 

The last few Market Outlooks monitored the progress of the A-B-C decline from the September 2 high. Here is the Profit Radar Report’s assessment from October 28:

The green area on the 4-hr S&P 500 Futures chart shows a general target area for wave C. Wave C would equal wave A at 3,152 (dashed blue lines). Waves C tend to either fall short or exceed the prior wave A low to some degree.

Wave 3 of 3 (of C) may have concluded at today’s low. A couple more up/down sequences (waves 4 and 5) into the 3,235 – 3,152 range could conclude the leg lower, and if investors like the election results this correction.

S&P 500 Futures are up some 20 points in after hours trading, likely the start of a bounce.

As the bigger picture chart of the the S&P 500 below shows, price fell into the green support zone and jumped from there … and is now nearing a resistance zone. Sustained trade above resistance will likely eliminate any mid-term bearish Elliott Wave patterns, but as long as resistance holds, it should be respected.

Continued updates along with the most likely long-term forward path (this was just published) are available via the Profit Radar Report

The Profit Radar Report comes with a 30-day money back guarantee, but fair warning: 90% of users stay on beyond 30 days.

Barron’s rates iSPYETF a “trader with a good track record,” and Investor’s Business Daily writes “Simon says and the market is playing along.”

S&P 500 Update – The Sports Illustrated Jinx and Mean Reversion

The September 21 Profit Radar Report and September 24 Free Market Outlook (sign up here for free weekly Free Market Outlook e-mail) highlighted the the green S&P 500 support trend line as is was likely to spark a bounce. As the chart below shows, the line is derived by connecting the 2007 and 2018 highs.

Barron’s rates iSPYETF as “trader with a good track record” and Investor’s Business Daily says: “When Simon says, the market listens.”  Find out why Barron’s and IBD endorse Simon Maierhofer’s Profit Radar Report

The bounce from trend line support happened, now we get to assess whether stocks will continue higher or relapse yet again.

Mean Reversion & the Sports Illustrated Jinx

The concept of mean reversion wasn’t discovered until the late 1800s (some 200 years after Newton was credited with discovering gravity) and is still misunderstood. 

There is a fascinating correlation between mean reversion and the Sports Illustrated (SI) jinx. According to the ‘jinx,’ athletes  are jinxed to perform poorly after appearing on the magazine’s cover. There’s a simple explanation for the so called jinx:

To make it on the SI cover, an athlete (or team of athletes) must have performed exceptionally well for a period of time. Appearing on the cover usually means that the athlete has performed above his average skill level (aided by a measure of luck and ‘being in the zone’) for too long and is bound to revert to the mean.

What does the SI jinx have to do with stocks?

The above-mentioned trend line has been acting as a mean reversion average of sort. When price rallied above the trend line for the first time (November 2019 – February 2020) it reversed lower, so much lower that price snapped back and once again exceeded it (July 2020 – September 2020). Last week, price once again came back to the trend line. 

If you enjoy quality, hand-crafted research, sign up for the FREE iSPYETF e-newsletter & market outlook

The chart below includes two more mean reversion gauges. The Bollinger Bands and RegressionDivergence. The center Bollinger Band converged with the support trend line at the time of the low (Sep 24) and the RegressionDivergence was smack dab neutral.

Based on the concept of mean reversion, the S&P 500 corrected enough to allow for the next rally.

Two Options

This is consistent with the S&P 500 projection and commentary published in the September 27 Profit Radar Report:

Since price broke above purple diagonal/wedge resistance, we assume wave B is now underway. Waves B are the most difficult waves to predict, with no real price targets and patterns ranging from very choppy to grinding and relentless.  Please note that the projections are not in scale in terms of time.

The alternative interpretation is that last week’s low was more important and will lead to new all-time highs (dashed green arrow). For the initial portion of this rally (or perhaps much of the rally, if it extends) it will be difficult to distinguish which option is playing out.”

Due to seasonality and pre-election uncertainty, stocks may still turn lower over the next 3 weeks, but more and more indicators are re-affirming a bullish fourth quarter tilt.

Continued updates are available via the Profit Radar Report.

Simon Maierhofer is the founder of iSPYETF and the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. Barron’s rated iSPYETF as a “trader with a good track record” (click here for Barron’s evaluation of the Profit Radar Report). The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013, 17.59% in 2014, 24.52% in 2015, 52.26% in 2016, and 23.39% in 2017.

Follow Simon on Twitter @iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF e-Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

What Do Those Rare Stock Market Anomalies Mean?

Relentless is one way to describe the stock market rally from the March low. Unusual is another, and recently it’s gotten plain odd.

Relentless & Unusual

The chart below shows the relentless and unusual nature. I first published the chart on April 7, when it became clear that this rally was going to be strong. The various graphs below show the trajectory of the fastest rallies from a 52-week low.

As the performance tracker shows (based on forward performance as of April 7), initial strength always continued, but this rally has broken all record.

Odd – Exhibit #1

Here is where things get odd. On July 20, the S&P 500 closed 0.84% higher, but 57% of all NYSE-traded stocks ended lower. This anomaly occurred 7 more times since.

The chart below plots the S&P 500 against the daily percentage change and percentage of declining stocks. The red arrows highlight days when the S&P closed higher despite a majority of stocks closing lower.

S&P 500 rallies despite more declining than advancing stocks have only occurred in two other distinct periods over the past 50 years.

Odd – Exhibit #2

Yesterday (August 26), the S&P 500 ended the day with a 1.02% gain, but the VIX rose 5.63%. Since there is an inverse relationship between the S&P 500 and the VIX, this is a very unusual reading.

In fact, since 1997, there’s been only one other time when the S&P 500 gained more than 1% and the VIX gained more than 5%. It was on June 8, 2020 (see chart below).

If we relax the parameters to include every instance where the S&P gained more than 1% and the VIX more than 3%, we get 10 other instances over the past 20 years.

Do Oddities Matter

The March 26 Profit Radar Report looked at a number of indicators (including liquidity) and concluded that: “We anticipate a recovery towards 3,000 (for the S&P 500) over the next couple months and quite possibly new all-time highs in 2020.”

Barron’s rates iSPYETF as “trader with a good track record” and Investor’s Business Daily says: “When Simon says, the market listens.”  Find out why Barron’s and IBD endorse Simon Maierhofer’s Profit Radar Report

New all-time highs are no surprise to subscribers of the Profit Radar Report, but that stocks got there without any significant pullback is unusual, even unprecedented.

But we are here now, and I’ve found that most investors approach the market in one of three ways:

  1. Get out of the market because it doesn’t make sense anymore
  2. Buy because the Federal Reserve will keep stocks afloat
  3. Stay informed and look at indicators that work most of the time (the kind of indicators that sniffed out the March low and projected a powerful rally) and put the odds in your favor.

If option #3 sounds most appealing to you, and if you would like to find out the other rare and unique times in history when 1) S&P 500 and VIX went up at the same time and 2) S&P 500 rallied with more declining than advancing stocks, you will find the Profit Radar Report of interest.

Simon Maierhofer is the founder of iSPYETF and the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. Barron’s rated iSPYETF as a “trader with a good track record” (click here for Barron’s evaluation of the Profit Radar Report). The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013, 17.59% in 2014, 24.52% in 2015, 52.26% in 2016, and 23.39% in 2017.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF e-Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

Legit or Counterfeit? Stock Market ‘Moment of Truth’ is Here

Is this rally legit or counterfeit? The ‘moment of truth’ is here, and we should soon find out.

How so?

I published the below S&P 500 chart in the June 2 Profit Radar Report and have been watching the purple projection ever since. The expanding purple lines outline a megaphone or expanding triangle pattern, with the upper ascending trend line marking natural resistance.

Barron’s rates iSPYETF as “trader with a good track record” and Investor’s Business Daily says: “When Simon says, the market listens.” Find out why Barron’s and IBD endorse Simon Maierhofer’s Profit Radar Report.

Critics claim that trend lines like this are ‘technical voodoo,’ but the market provides the points, analysts like myself simply connect the dots (like painting by numbers).

Such trend lines are like traffic lights. A car can stop at any given moment, but it’s most likely to stop (and potentially U-turn) at a traffic light.

Rule of thumb

Since trend lines give the market a chance to prove itself, it’s generally best not to buy below trend line resistance (because the market has to prove itself by moving above) or to sell above resistance (because the market just proved it can move above and may continue higher).

What are the odds of a reversal?

The updated S&P 500 chart below includes the same expanding triangle (or megaphone) lines along with some other support/resistance levels and indicators.

The S&P 500 is within striking distance of trend line resistance. RSI-2 is almost over-bought, and RSI-35 is lagging.

In other words, the S&P is approaching the ‘traffic light’ with the gas tank approaching ‘E.’

The Dow Jones Industrial Average already tagged its megaphone line. If it moves above, and as long as it stays above, it’s prudent to allow for higher prices, although a number of indicators suggest an eventual relapse.

Seasonality

The beginning of July is usually bullish (with the first trading day of July having been up 84% of the time), but this bullish seasonality is now fading away. In fact, the second half of July and August tend to be tough for stocks.

Bearish VIX wedge

The VIX is carving out yet another wedge. The wedge is not necessarily an immediate sell signal for stocks, but a close above 14.50 is bullish for the VIX and likely bearish for stocks.

Summary 

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials Average are at a resistance zone that double as inflection zone (the S&P 500 resistance level is 0.5% higher than the corresponding DJIA level, so we should allow for at least a 0.5% margin).

A sustained break above resistance will likely unlock further gains, but failure to move or stay above resistance may be the beginning of another nasty 10-15% correction

Based on the weight of evidence, I believe the risk of a pullback near current levels is elevated.

Continued updates, projections, buy/sell recommendations are available via the Profit Radar Report.

Simon Maierhofer is the founder of iSPYETF and the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. Barron’s rated iSPYETF as a “trader with a good track record” (click here for Barron’s evaluation of the Profit Radar Report). The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013, 17.59% in 2014, 24.52% in 2015, 52.26% in 2016, and 23.39% in 2017.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF e-Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

S&P 500 Update – Outrageous Projection

The S&P 500 is following closely my projection (in yellow) published in the Profit Radar Report’s 2019 S&P 500 Forecast.

Barron’s rates iSPYETF as “trader with a good track record” and Investor’s Business Daily says: “When Simon says, the market listens.” Find out why Barron’s and IBD endorse Simon Maierhofer’s Profit Radar Report.

Unfortunately we never got the pullback expected in Q1 2019, but the new all-time highs are right ‘on schedule.’

This doesn’t mean there wasn’t any uncertainty on the way up. The Profit Radar Report always looks at the market from different angles, and at the beginning of April there were enough conflicting indicators and signals to cause analysis paralysis.

Instead of further exploring the various cross currents, and burdening subscribers with information overload, I decided to take the approach described in the April 7 Profit Radar Report:

Perhaps a simplified approach will help navigate this environment. Red trend line resistance has held thus far, and has not become main stream enough to be negated. Green trend line is near-term support. An immediate break above trend line resistance may lead to closure of the open chart gap at 2,921.36.”

Below is an updated version of the chart published on April 7. Instead of breaking above the red trend line to close the gap at 2,921, the S&P 500 has been inching higher like pulled on a zip line.

Regardless of how, the gap has been closed, and the S&P 500 has now one less reason to continue higher without interruption (chart gaps act as magnets).

I wouldn’t be surprised to the see the S&P 500 grind a little higher, but then we should see whether the remainder of my S&P 500 projection – which is quite outrageous – will also prove correct.

Based on investor sentiment, a nasty decline is possible and becoming more likely, but based on liquidity any drop is probably only temporary. According to Elliott Wave Theory, an upcoming drop (once smaller waves 4 and 5 are complete) could be a steep wave C or wave 2, but as long as the S&P stays above 2,900, it can grind higher.

Continued updates are available via the Profit Radar Report.

Simon Maierhofer is the founder of iSPYETF and the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. Barron’s rated iSPYETF as a “trader with a good track record” (click here for Barron’s evaluation of the Profit Radar Report). The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013, 17.59% in 2014, 24.52% in 2015, 52.26% in 2016, and 23.39% in 2017.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF e-Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.