S&P 500, Bitcoin, Treasury Update

Subscribers to iSPYETF’s free e-mail newsletter receive a market outlook, usually once a week. The market outlook below was sent out on October 27, 2022. If you’d like to sign up for the free e-newsletter, you may do so here (we will never share your e-mail with anyone, just as we don’t accept advertising).

S&P 500

Are you going to talk about the expanding diagonal again?

If a simple pattern works so beautifully in an incredibly challenging environment, you ride it and milk it as long as it works (if you haven’t read about the expanding diagonal yet, you can do so here:

S&P 500 Path is Deceptively Simple

The October 12 Profit Radar Report that: “This week’s new S&P 500 low meets the minimum requirement for a wave 5 low, and RSI-2 is nearing over-sold again.”

Starting on October 13, the S&P soared almost 300 points.

Obviously there are still a ton of economical and political cross currents, but the KISS approach is to look higher as long as double support (shown on the monthly chart) holds.

Treasuries

“Distrust in government is a global mega trend. The US Treasury market may just have carved out a key reversal and perhaps major market top.” March 15, 2020 Profit Radar Report

30-year Treasury bonds just suffered the worst one-year decline on record and are down 35% from their all-time high. The last 2 1/2 years have erased about 43% of the gains racked up during a 40-year bull market.

But, as mentioned in the October 23 Profit Radar Report, there is long-term support near current price, short-term RSI-2 is over-sold, RSI-35 is around support, and a furious rally is becoming likely.

The daily chart shows TLT up some 6% since October 24, now nearing over-bought and resistance, but price is compressed from almost 9 month of steady losses, so further up side (perhaps after a pullback) is very possible.

Bitcoin

October 23, Profit Radar Report: “Bitcoin futures are trading above trend line resistance. RSI-35 has been rising over the past 4 months where price was range bound. This is not a screaming buy signal, but the development is overall positive.

Aggressive investors may consider either 1) buying bitcoin with a stop-loss below either of the support trend lines or 2) buy after a break above resistance around 20,400. One ETF alternative for bitcoin is the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).”

Bitcoin has since broken out, and previous resistance is now support (and potential stop-loss) for longs.

Continuous updates for the S&P 500, Treasuries, Bitcoin are available via the Profit Radar Report.

If you want to be the best-informed investor you know, and have access to always relevant and purely fact-based research, sign up for the Profit Radar Report. 

The Profit Radar Report comes with a 30-day money back guarantee, but fair warning: 90% of users stay on beyond 30 days.

Barron’s rates iSPYETF a “trader with a good track record,” and Investor’s Business Daily writes “Simon says and the market is playing along.”

2022 S&P 500 Path Remains on Track

Subscribers to iSPYETF’s free e-mail newsletter receive a market outlook, usually once a week. The market outlook below was sent out on October 13, 2022. If you’d like to sign up for the free e-newsletter, you may do so here (we will never share your e-mail with anyone, just as we don’t accept advertising).

For months, the S&P 500 has been following the expanding diagonal pattern. This has been a surprisingly easy way to navigate an uber complicated political and economical environment.

If you haven’t read about the pattern that’s almost worked like painting by numbers, you can check it out here:

S&P 500 Path Deceptively Simple

As shocking as the 2022 stock market performance has been to most, it is actually very much in line with another historic pattern; the 4-year presidential election cycle:

“2022 is the mid election year, which is the weakest of the 4-year presidential election year cycle. Historically (going back to 1950), the S&P 500 declines on average about 20% into the mid-term election year low.

The following year (the pre election year, 2023) is the strongest year of the election year cycle as incumbent presidents prime the pump to increase the odds of reelection. Historically, the S&P 500 gains on average about 50% from the mid election year low to the pre election year high.

Cycles project a fair amount of political and economic turmoil starting in Q1 of 2022. Based on seasonality and cycles, 2022 will be a tough year to navigate where high stocks prices early in the year should be used to raise cash for a better buying opportunity later in the year.”

Some may say; ‘hindsight is 20/20, it’s easy to point this out after the fact,’ but I wrote the above in my 2022 S&P 500 Forecast, published for Profit Radar Report subscribers back in January.

The S&P 500 mid election year seasonality chart that accompanied the above commentary highlights the tendency of a Q4 low.

Is it a fools errand to write about a buying opportunity in a bear market? That’s an interesting question, and my answer along with an interesting statistic is available here.

Does the expanding diagonal pattern and election year cycle guarantee that stocks will rally? Of course not. There are no guarantees in life or investing.

But, and that’s a big but, the odds of an upcoming rally are much higher than many believe them to be.

Of course I’m not recommending to buy blindly, but I am keeping my eyes peeled for breadth and sentiment extremes or divergences that tend to be seen near meaningful lows. I discussed one divergence, that happened this week for the first time in 2022, in yesterday’s Profit Radar Report update.

Since then, S&P 500 Futures dropped as low as 3,502 and soared 150 points over the last 3 hours.

The above long-term support chart may be helpful in identifying a buying opportunity (or failure of one).

If you want to be the best-informed investor you know, and have access to always relevant and purely fact-based research, sign up for the Profit Radar Report. 

The Profit Radar Report comes with a 30-day money back guarantee, but fair warning: 90% of users stay on beyond 30 days.

Barron’s rates iSPYETF a “trader with a good track record,” and Investor’s Business Daily writes “Simon says and the market is playing along.”

S&P 500 Path Deceptively Simple

Subscribers to iSPYETF’s free e-mail newsletter receive a market outlook, usually once a week. The market outlook below was sent out on September 29, 2022. If you’d like to sign up for the free e-newsletter, you may do so here (we will never share your e-mail with anyone, just as we don’t accept advertising).

The expanding diagonal pattern, first identified in the July 31 Profit Radar Report, continues to play out. The pattern is outlined via the purple lines below.

This pattern has been a surprisingly simple way to navigate an incredibly complex investing environment (I wrote about this here).

To continuously validate the pattern, I’ve also provided ‘the trend is down as long as’ resistance levels, such as the following:

September 18, Profit Radar Report: “Bears have the upper hand as long as the S&P 500 does not sustain trade above 3,920.”

September 21, Profit Radar Report: “Trade below 3,790 is another simple ‘line in the sand for short-term bearish risk.”

The ‘the trend is down as long as’ resistance levels are shown in red below. Neither of those level has been broken to the up side, so the trend continues down towards an eventual wave 5 low.

It’s beautiful when a pattern works out like ‘painting by numbers,’ but the market never consistently rewards one trick pony analysts.

Just last Sunday, I did a deep dive analysis of market breadth and investor sentiment to see if the weight of evidence supports or contradicts the expanding diagonal pattern.

Being aware of a wide spectrum of indicators prevents tunnel vision and getting blind sighted.

Market breadth

Shown below are 6 different breadth measures. Some of them are near their June lows (like the S&P 500) and others are reaching levels where a reversal to the mean becomes more likely.

Investor Sentiment

Only one out of the six short-term sentiment gauges plotted below is at a real extreme, the others still have room to grow.

In addition to just looking at the data, I also identify other times that most closely replicate today’s readings.

For example, there were 3 other signal dates that closely correlate to the market breadth data shown above and 9 signal dates that are closely correlated to current sentiment readings.

Would you like to know how the market reacted to similar conditions in the past?

Those findings, along with purely fact-based analysis is available via the Profit Radar Report. 

The Profit Radar Report comes with a 30-day money back guarantee, but fair warning: 90% of users stay on beyond 30 days.

Barron’s rates iSPYETF a “trader with a good track record,” and Investor’s Business Daily writes “Simon says and the market is playing along.”

Bearish S&P 500 Pattern Still Looms

Subscribers to iSPYETF’s free e-mail newsletter receive a market outlook, usually once a week. The market outlook below was sent out on September 15, 2022. If you’d like to sign up for the free e-newsletter, you may do so here (we will never share your e-mail with anyone, just as we don’t accept advertising).

Not much has changed since the last free Free Market Outlook (S&P 500 Reverses at Upside Target, Aug. 25).

Below is an updated version of the chart shown on August 25 and many times before. The S&P 500 tagged trend line resistance (of a pattern called expanding diagonal) and reversed.

The reaction to resistance is in line with what I anticipated in the July 31 Profit Radar Report:

“The purple lines outline an expanding diagonal (resistance around 4,350). The textbook blueprint for this diagonal would be to tag the purple line and then fall.“

The down side target for the expanding diagonal is pretty aggressive (and and seemed even more aggressive when the S&P 500 tagged resistance around 4,350). When I wrote the last free Market Outlook, back in August, I wasn’t willing to commit to that down side target. Why?

The rally from the June low triggered a number of bullish studies. One of those was that the percentage of stocks above their 50-day SMA cycled from below 2% to above 90%.

This rarely happens, and when it does it’s a good thing for stocks. The chart below shows 8 other signal clusters when the % of S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day SMA cycled from below 10% to above 90%. All of them were long-term bullish, and most of them also sparked short-term gains.

Did anything change since then to make you commit to a down side target? Yes something did change.

I noted a bearish overlap (according to Elliott Wave Theory) and pointed it out in the August 31 Profit Radar Report:

“One of the things we were watching is the overlap level at wave 1, which is 3,950 for the S&P 500 Futures. It looks like the rally from the June low ended after only 3 waves, and the decline from the August high looks like a developing 5 waves, neither of which is bullish.”

This bearish overlap is highlighted by the dashed red line seen in the first chart, and partially because of this overlap, I recommended the following in the September 5 Profit Radar Report:

“An over-sold bounce seems likely soon, and it’s prudent to use this bounce to reduce exposure.”

We reduced exposure last Friday, when S&P 500 soared with 91.74% of trading volume flowing into advancing stocks (this was the fifth 90%+ up volume day since the June low).

The chart below highlights every 90%+ up volume day. It was almost always long-term bullish for stocks.

However, just two days later, on Tuesday, 95.86% of volume went into declining stocks.

Fortunately the weight of evidence suggested to sell into strength, short term.

What about longer-term? Does Tuesday’s extreme down day void the bullish implications of the strong up volume days? Is the aggressive down side target of the expanding diagonal on the table?

Answers based on the weight of evidence (and I consider a ton of evidence) is available via the Profit Radar Report. 

The Profit Radar Report comes with a 30-day money back guarantee, but fair warning: 90% of users stay on beyond 30 days.

Barron’s rates iSPYETF a “trader with a good track record,” and Investor’s Business Daily writes “Simon says and the market is playing along.”&P 5

Is this still just a Bear Market Rally?

Subscribers to iSPYETF’s free e-mail newsletter receive a market outlook, usually once a week. The market outlook below was sent out on August 11, 2022. If you’d like to sign up for the free e-newsletter, you may do so here (we will never share your e-mail with anyone, just as we don’t accept advertising).

As regular readers know, for weeks my indicators have been saying that stocks should bounce rather strongly.

The May bounce wasn’t ready for the big league yet (which forced me to take a few bites of humble pie in early June), but the rally from the June 16 low surely delivered (the S&P 500 is up over 15%).

The Free Market Outlook from June 21 titled “Blood on Wall Street,” stated there’s panic and blood on Wall Street and that “this is about the time to be rational and go against the trend.”

Even before that, the June 19 Profit Radar Report, published a highly controversial Elliott Wave Theory count. Although the wave count was ambiguous, this was my preferred interpretation.

Based on this count, a 3-wave decline (A-B-C) just ended and the S&P was ready to rally.

This was highly controversial because almost every Elliott Wave analysts expected dooms day scenario-like outcomes (with wave 3 of 3 down about to rip lower).

A few days earlier, in the June 15 Profit Radar Report, I published a bullish wedge which also could unlock much higher targets.

Well, the S&P 500 is now up over 15% and has retraced nearly 50% of the points lost from the January high to the June low.

The S&P 500 has fulfilled my forecast of a significant bounce and (based on price and some sentiment gauges) has reached the zone where a bear market rally ‘should’ soon (not necessarily right away) roll over.

Based on Google searches for ‘bear market rally,’ it seems like that’s what investors expect.

Here is the big question: Is this just a bear market rally, doomed to roll over, or could it be more, perhaps much more?

Last night’s Profit Radar Report featured two historic examples (one of them helped us nail the 2020 low) to help ascertain the odds of a bear market rally.

Last night’s update, an archive of all past research, and continued purely fact-based, out-of-the box analysis are available via the Profit Radar Report Profit Radar Report. Be the best-informed investor you know and don’t get caught following the crowded traded.

The Profit Radar Report comes with a 30-day money back guarantee, but fair warning: 90% of users stay on beyond 30 days.

Barron’s rates iSPYETF a “trader with a good track record,” and Investor’s Business Daily writes “Simon says and the market is playing along.”

S&P 500 and Inflation Update

Subscribers to iSPYETF’s free e-mail newsletter receive a market outlook, usually once a week. The market outlook below was sent out on July 9, 2022. If you’d like to sign up for the free e-newsletter, you may do so here (we will never share your e-mail with anyone, just as we don’t accept advertising).

The last Market Outlook (June 16, how time flies) made only two observations regarding the S&P 500:

– There’s a massive chart gap at 3,900, which certainly will be closed.

– There’s support at 3,600 – 3,300, which could be tested.

In addition, the Profit Radar Report highlighted that 3,664 is where a potential S&P 500 C-wave would be a Fibonacci 1.382 x wave A (the most bullish S&P 500 scenario).

Since then, the S&P fell as low as 3,636 and bounced as high as 3,945 (reaching the up and down side ‘target’ mentioned above).

Investors are emotionally charged and it’s easy to get carried away with doomsday or overly optimistic expectations. I too have a bullish and bearish scenario. I favor the bullish scenario, but I’m not married to it.

I wrote in the June 29 Profit Radar Report that: “We will give the market some space to get itself together and wait for either a move above the 3,950 zone (red bar) or below the 3,720 zone (green bar).“

The S&P is still stuck in this zone, and it’s ‘watch and wait’ time as long as it stays stuck.

Now, the more important invalidation level for the most bearish option is not the red zone, it’s a different zone, and it must be cleared to take the doomsday option off the table (I’ve highlighted this level in the Profit Radar Report).

One positive study was featured in the June 19, Profit Radar Report. It showed every time when only 2% (or less) of NYSE-traded stocks closed above their respective 50-day SMA and only 12.8% (or less) above their 200-day SMA. There were 29 signals confined to 5 clusters.

In general, most sentiment and breadth-based studies project at least a short-term bounce while economic indicator-based studies project poor longer-term forward returns.

The best thing to do in a market like this is to look at the facts and don’t get carried away by the media’s attention grabbing coverage.

On a different note, I mentioned in the June 19 Profit Radar Report than inflation may well take a pause for a couple of months.

Since then, prime ‘inflation trades’ (assets that have benefit from inflation fears) have taken major haircuts.

EWZ (Brazil ETF), DBA (agriculture ETF), UNG (natural gas ETF) have suffered heavy double digit losses, gold and silver were summoned for a meeting behind the wood shed and even king oil is down. Many of those assets are over-sold, potentially ready for a bounce.

Continued updates and comprehensive, fact-based, out-of-the box analysis (and the invalidation level for the S&P 500 doomsday scenario) are available via the Profit Radar Report. 

The Profit Radar Report comes with a 30-day money back guarantee, but fair warning: 90% of users stay on beyond 30 days.

Barron’s rates iSPYETF a “trader with a good track record,” and Investor’s Business Daily writes “Simon says and the market is playing along.”

Is it Time to Buy?

Subscribers to iSPYETF’s free e-mail newsletter receive a market outlook, usually once a week. The market outlook below was sent out on May 26, 2022. If you’d like to sign up for the free e-newsletter, you may do so here (we will never share your e-mail with anyone, just as we don’t accept advertising).

Is it time to buy? Considering the financial/economical/political backdrop, that’s a bold question. The headlines below probably reflect investors angst:

– WSJ: Stock market bottom remains elusive despite deepening decline

– Fortune: It’s looking a lot like the dot-com crash again

– IBD: Market correction worsens as ‘hard’ reality sets in

– WSJ: Conditions are ripe for a deep bear market

Sometimes things are soo bad, it’s worth taking a stab at buying some deeply over-sold stocks/indexes.

Recent Profit Radar Reports featured a number of deeply over-sold and over-hated companies worth a flyer. One of them is one of the largest company in the world, down over 45% from its all-time high, trading below it’s pre-pandemic price tag, and resting at major support.

No, stocks are not out of the woods, but many are at an inflection zone. The odds of a bounce here are better than they’ve been in months.

Yesterday’s Profit Radar Report stated that: “The S&P 500’s close back within the trend channel and above the descending trend line is a short-term positive.”

The DJIA chart sports one reason to be bullish that no one is talking about, but has been infallible over the past 13 years. Can you see it?

It’s said that fortune favors the brave, and perhaps now is the time to be brave. Fortune, or better success, for certain does not favor the ignorant, and now is not the time to be ignorant (not being ignorant also means to see the potential down side risk despite the up side potential and protect against it).

The Profit Radar Report looks at all the facts without bias and says it how it is. This includes the reason to be bullish (or at least postpone turning bearish) on DJIA and the over-sold and over-hated mega cap stock at massive support. Find out now and sign up for the Profit Radar Report. 

The Profit Radar Report comes with a 30-day money back guarantee, but fair warning: 90% of users stay on beyond 30 days.

Barron’s rates iSPYETF a “trader with a good track record,” and Investor’s Business Daily writes “Simon says and the market is playing along.”

Are Things Bad Enough to be Good?

Subscribers to iSPYETF’s free e-mail newsletter receive a market outlook, usually once a week. The market outlook below was sent out on May 12, 2022 If you’d like to sign up for the free e-newsletter, you may do so here (we will never share your e-mail with anyone, just as we don’t accept advertising).

The S&P 500 reached the 4,000 zone this week, which has been our potential down side target for a while (April 13 Profit Radar Report). The area surrounding 4,000 was an inflection zone where a bounce would become more likely.

Since the S&P did not react to this support zone, price can slice lower into our next target zone. 

Down side momentum picked up and breadth has turned horrible. Is it bad enough where it’s actually good for stocks?

I’d like to share some stats on how the S&P 500 performed in the past when breadth was as bad as last week. This is from Sunday’s Profit Radar Report:

“Another bruising day dropped the S&P 500 right into the 4,000 zone. At the end of the day, the S&P fell 3.20% with only 11.83% of NYSE-traded stocks advancing (on only 7% of volume, based on preliminary data). This followed Wednesday’s 3.56% / 5.30% / 11.87% day.

Most breadth readings are at the lowest level since the pandemic low.

Sunday’s PRR highlighted similar down days. 10 of the 25 signals saw extreme clusters (down volume >93% on 2 of 3 days, orange lines). Even though the 2008 meltdown hosted 3 of those 10 signals, 1, 2, 6, 12 month later the S&P was higher 9 out of 10 times.

The percentage of 52-week highs minus low was at -30.90%. The chart below shows the 64 signal dates with more than -30% while more than 12% from the all-time high.

Similar to prior studies, many clusters fall into the ominous years of 1974, 1987, 2008/09, 2020.

The study below has a shorter history (since 2003) but includes more indicators. Again we see 2008, 2020 and 2012.”

What does all of this mean?

Looking at similar ‘events’ in the past provides a gauge of what would be normal to expect in the future.

A 2008-like event is always an outlier event. Based on the data it’s possible, but such an extended meltdown seems unlikely.

While below 4,000, the S&P can continue lower into our next target range. Some indicators are already in ‘it’s so bad it’s good’ territory, and if stocks fall into the target range, we’ll probably buy to take advantage of a bounce. Whether such a bounce could still set new all-time high would be evaluated at the time

Continuous updates and fact-based, out-of-the box analysis is available via the Profit Radar Report. 

The Profit Radar Report comes with a 30-day money back guarantee, but fair warning: 90% of users stay on beyond 30 days.

Barron’s rates iSPYETF a “trader with a good track record,” and Investor’s Business Daily writes “Simon says and the market is playing along.”

Subscribers to iSPYETF’s free e-mail newsletter receive a market outlook, usually once a week. The market outlook below was sent out on May 5, 2022. If you’d like to sign up for the free e-newsletter, you may do so here (we will never share your e-mail with anyone, just as we don’t accept advertising).

Yesterday the S&P 500 delivered the biggest one-day pop since April 20, 2020, that’s more than 2 years ago.

Trading and advising through the 2008/09 meltdown I remember that some of the biggest pops happen during bear markets.

And I distinctly remember that the ‘big pop in bear markets’ notion made a comeback in the post-pandemic rally (it obviously wasn’t true then). So what do big pops really mean?

To find out I isolated dates where the S&P gained more than 2.7% with more than 80% of stocks advancing (on more than 80% of volume) while down more than 12% from its all-time high.

There were 50 signal dates since 1970, all of them highlighted below. More often than not those kind of pops occurred going into or coming out of a significant low. But, there were those 2002, 2008/09 instances that preceded a meltdown.

The S&P is down more today than it was up yesterday, so that will be another interesting study for the next Profit Radar Report: What happens after big up/down days? If you want to find out, sign up for the Profit Radar Report.

The April 13 Profit Radar Report stated that: “The S&P could fall towards and even below 4,000 before giving away whether option 1 or 2 is playing out.”

S&P 4,000 is not far away so we should soon find out.

Last Friday, the S&P closed at the lowest level since May 19, 2021. Since last Friday was the last day of April, it was also the publication day of the monthly Sentiment Picture.

The Sentiment Picture consists of two parts:

1) Charting various sentiment gauges (see chart below)

2) Identifying other times with similar sentiment readings and how the S&P 500 performed thereafter.

As you can see, there were a couple of sentiment extremes, but sentiment indicators aren’t as bearish perhaps the media. Is that good or bad for stocks?

The answer along with usually out-of-the-box but always fact-based analysis is available via the Profit Radar Report. 

The Profit Radar Report comes with a 30-day money back guarantee, but fair warning: 90% of users stay on beyond 30 days.

Barron’s rates iSPYETF a “trader with a good track record,” and Investor’s Business Daily writes “Simon says and the market is playing along.”

Historic Price Thrust

Subscribers to iSPYETF’s free e-mail newsletter receive a market outlook, usually once a week. The market outlook below was sent out on March 24, 2022. If you’d like to sign up for the free e-newsletter, you may do so here (we will never share your e-mail with anyone, just as we don’t accept advertising).

Last week’s Free Market Outlook discussed how the ‘death cross’ – which triggered on March 14, when the S&P 500 traded 320 points lower – is actually bullish for stocks.

The Sunday, March 13 Profit Radar Report stated that: “In terms of timing, early this week is likely the best window for a low.”

On Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday (March 15 – 18), the S&P 500 gained more than 1% each day. There have only been 4 other times (since 1970) where the S&P 500 gained more than 1% on 4 consecutive days. Those 4 times are highlighted below.

So far so good, stocks bounced when they were ‘supposed to.’ The S&P 500 has now reached the bottom of the ‘where the rubber meets the road’ zone.

This zone is likely where we will find out if the bounce has legs or will roll over.

I have a clear preference, which is based on hundreds of indicators making up the Risk/Reward Heat Map.

Here is the latest study to be included as part of the Risk/Reward Heat Map:

It looks at the years where the YTD performance is most similar to 2022 and how the S&P performed those years.

This study was published in Sunday’s Profit Radar Report update.

For a continuous flow of fact-based analysis, sign up for the Profit Radar Report. 

The Profit Radar Report comes with a 30-day money back guarantee, but fair warning: 90% of users stay on beyond 30 days.

Barron’s rates iSPYETF a “trader with a good track record,” and Investor’s Business Daily writes “Simon says and the market is playing along.”

Big Headline Wrong-foots Investors

Subscribers to iSPYETF’s free e-mail newsletter receive a market outlook, usually once a week. The market outlook below was sent out on March 17. If you’d like to sign up for the free e-newsletter, you may do so here (we will never share your e-mail with anyone, just as we don’t accept advertising).

It became clear last week that the S&P 500’s 50-day SMA was about to fall below the 200-day SMA, it’s called a ‘death cross’ (I didn’t come up with that), and the media makes a big deal about it. Here are some headlines from Monday (when the death cross happened):

– Bloomberg: Watch S&P 500 falls into ‘death cross’

– MarketWatch: Death cross crystalizes … in a bearish sign for the stock market

– Yahoo Finance: Investors now expect a bear market in 2022

I didn’t even mention the death cross. Why? Unlike catchy headlines, the facts show that the ominous label is downright misleading.

Since 1970, the death cross + (with filter) triggered 8 other times. The added filter requires for the signal to be the first in at least 10 month, and to happen after a minimum loss of 3% over the previous 4 weeks.

The chart below shows the trajectory 40 days prior to the signal (dashed red line) and the performance after the signal.

The astute reader will notice that only 7 signals are shown. Why?

Because this chart was original published in the March 30, 2020 Profit Radar Report. The death cross discussed at the time triggered on March 27, 2020, when the S&P 500 closed at 2,541.47.

The March 27, 2020 death cross triggered an avalanche of bearish headlines, but this timely study unmistakable showed that the death cross is not bearish, but quite the opposite.

Now you know why the Profit Radar Report relies only on facts, not popular opinion (and why the Profit Radar Report has one of the highest renewal rates in the business).

Of course, the so called death cross was in conflict with our assessment. Last week’s free Market Outlook stated that:

“The S&P 500 is getting closer to a potential bounce in terms of timing. I would still like to see one more nasty washout day that meets certain requirements to pull the trigger.”

We did not get that nasty washout day (Monday’s drop didn’t meet my requirements), but the S&P 500 appears to have completed a the purple contracting diagonal shown last week … and the S&P has soared more than 200 points since the death cross.

Resistance is nearby, but as long as diagonal support holds, we are looking for higher prices. Gains don’t have to be explosive, but further up side seems more likely than a breakdown (triangle support can be used as point of ruin).

Crude oil: The March 2 PRR warned that: “RSI-2 is over-bought and resistance created by the May 2011 highs is nearby. This is not the time to chase oil.“

Oil fell as much as 28.42% from its high, but found support around 95. More important support is around 86.

There are so many unprecedented variables right now, but that’s what people said during the March 2020 drop and pop.

Fact-and-data-based analysis worked during the unprecedented pandemic and has the best odds of working again today.

Defeat analysis paralysis, get an edge on the crowd, and invest based on facts not tales. Sign up for the Profit Radar Report. 

The Profit Radar Report comes with a 30-day money back guarantee, but fair warning: 90% of users stay on beyond 30 days.

Barron’s rates iSPYETF a “trader with a good track record,” and Investor’s Business Daily writes “Simon says and the market is playing along.”