Bitcoin Update

While watching tennis on April 17, I caught a ‘too good to be true moment.’ What was it? A Coinbase commercial. The commercial included the price history and an actual projection (of course much higher) of Bitcoin. Frankly, I couldn’t even believe this was legal, because the commercial showed Bitcoin soaring from 58,000 to infinity.

I took a picture of my TV screen and commented on it in the Profit Radar Report (you can watch the full commercial here, the projection to infinity is shown at second 16).

Here is what I wrote about that in the April 25 Profit Radar Report:

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What captured my attention is that the commercial actually projected the price of bitcoin going through the roof, which of course activated my contrarian antennae. The chart insert shows the price of Coinbase since going public (down 23.6%). 

Short-term, Bitcoin Futures are at support (around 47,500) with RSI-2 over-sold. This support may spark a bounce and a drop below support is needed for lower price targets.”

The chart below shows that Bitcoin first bounced from support but eventually that support failed and led to much lower prices. One down side target was the 161.8% Fibonacci extension at 30,574, which was reached on May 19.

As Bitcoin dove towards 30,000, it also fell more than 50% below its 50-day SMA, which doesn’t happen often. 

The orange lines below highlight other times Bitcoin traded more than 50% below its 50-day SMA. This kind of ‘oversoldness’ always led to a rally, although In 2018 that rally was brief.

In Summary, there was extreme Bitcoin euphoria around 60,000 and a possible ‘washout’ event around 30,000. It’s quite possible that price will trade in that range for a while as emotions recalibrate.

Continuous updates are available via the Profit Radar Report.

Simon Maierhofer is the founder of iSPYETF and the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. Barron’s rated iSPYETF as a “trader with a good track record” (click here for Barron’s evaluation of the Profit Radar Report). The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. 

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2021 S&P 500 Forecast, Bitcoin, Gold


Subscribers to iSPYETF’s free e-mail newsletter receive a market outlook, usually once a week. The market outlook below was sent out on January 21. If you’d like to sign up for the free e-newsletter, you may do so here (we will never share your e-mail with anyone, just as we don’t accept advertising).

Here’s your ‘broken record’ moment of the day: The tug-of-war between extreme sentiment and breadth continues as stocks grind higher (2 steps forward, 1 step back).

If you’re not yet familiar with this epic, never before seen tug-of-war, it was explained here on December 1 with the following conclusion:

Normally the combination of historic investor optimism while stocks are pressing against long-term resistance is a recipe for disaster. But, as the above studies show, strong stock market internals are likely to over-power other risk factors.

Our approach has been, and continues to be: Higher prices are likely as long as support holds.

But, extreme euphoria brings risk of a nasty pullback, so I’m also trying to discern where that risk potential might turn into reality.

The dashed trend channel center line could be a ‘pressure point’ for the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM).

The detailed 2021 S&P 500 Forecast includes an actual S&P 500 price projection for 2021 based on the following factors:

  • Breadth & liquidity
  • Technical analysis (support/resistance & Elliott Wave Theory)
  • Investor sentiment
  • Seasonality & cycles
  • Valuations
  • Risk/Reward Heat Map

The latest gold analysis is available here.

The January 6 Profit Radar Report included the Bitcoin chart below along with this warning:

Bitcoin has gone parabolic, and Bitcoin futures jumped another 16.7% on Sunday afternoon. If Sunday’s pop holds, price will open above the blue trend channel on Monday, which will then act as support (around 33,000). The rally has taken the shape of a bowl (green line) and I don’t recall a ‘bowl-shaped’ rally that didn’t end badly. Based on Elliott Wave Theory, any upcoming pullback could be ‘only’ a wave 4 and not as strong as in 2018, but nevertheless, any remaining gains come with the risk of a quick 20-40% pullback.”

Bitcoin Futures are down some 30% and price is threatening to fall below the blue channel. While there is more down side risk, there’s a good chance Bitcoin will recover to new highs once this correction is over.

Continued updates and the new 2021 S&P 500 Forecast are available via the Profit Radar Report

The Profit Radar Report comes with a 30-day money back guarantee, but fair warning: 90% of users stay on beyond 30 days.

Barron’s rates iSPYETF a “trader with a good track record,” and Investor’s Business Daily writes “Simon says and the market is playing along.”S&P