How to Predict a Market Crash

Although I warned of an environment where the risk of a meltdown is high (wave 3 down, based on Elliott Wave Theory), I can’t claim credit for predicting the December crash.

Because of my multi-indicator approach to market forecasting, and profound concern for my subscriber’s portfolio’s, I rarely ever make absolute one-directional predictions based on only one indicator.

Absolute Predictions

There are plenty of absolute and unequivocal predictions out there. Such ‘hit or miss’ or ‘all or nothing’ bets are great when they work out (and like gambling, sometimes they do), but cause excruciating pain when they don’t.

Below are a few examples of recent all or nothing predictions:

December 6: “The last great buying opportunity of the decade is here!”

December 10: “Keep cool! S&P 500 & Nasdaq holding above lows. Signal is bullish!”

December 19: “ All structural criteria is in place to create a POWERFUL 1-2 week rally”

My favorite: May 14, 2018 (and virtually every day since 2011): “I think it likely that the rally is ending today” (red arrows added to show implications of wave 2 top, and subsequent wave 3 decline)

I found in my research that the only folks who ‘predicted’ the December meltdown, are those we’ve been spewing doom and gloom for years (even a broken clock is right twice a day).

My Promise

My intent is not to discredit the above services, but to highlight the flaws of tunnel vision research. That is, research based on only one indicator or one methodology.

Before publishing the Profit Radar Report (many, many years ago), I lost a lot of money by trusting one single indicator (which at the time had a good track record). Back then, I took off my ‘research blinders,’ and vowed to expand my research horizon.

Better Diversification

Diversification is a popular term in the investment world, and it’s almost exclusively linked to asset allocation. But what about research diversification?

Just as a diversified portfolio smoothes out individual boom and bust cycles, research diversifcation eliminates the ‘hit or miss’ performance tied to any one single indicator.

Multi-indicator Approach

My goal is to distill and compress the message of various indicators (such as: investor sentiment, money flow, breadth, technical analysis, price patterns, seasonality, etc.) into the most likely path going forward, the direction suggested by the weight of evidence.

For example, on October 28, when the S&P 500 first fell into the 2,600s, I published the weight-of-evidence-based projection (yellow lines) along with the below commentary via the Profit Radar Report:

The biggest potential ‘fat pitch’ trades are to go short above 2,830 (red box) or buy at the second low (green box).”

The yellow lines projected a move from 2,600 to ~2,850, followed by a drop to ~2,400.

Barron’s rates iSPYETF as “trader with a good track record” and Investor’s Business Daily says: “When Simon says, the market listens.” Find out why Barron’s and IBD endorse Simon Maierhofer’s Profit Radar Report.

Crash Environment Alert

Starting on December 9, I warned subscribers that a wave 3 crash is a possibility. For example, the December 9 Profit Radar Report stated that:

Based on Elliott Wave Theory, the S&P 500 could be 1) nearing the exhaustion point of this down leg, or 2) be in a strong and sustained wave 3 lower. Scenario #2 seems more likely.”

The December 17 Profit Radar Report reiterated the following:

Based on Elliott Wave Theory, both options discussed on December 9:

1) Washout decline with target of 2,550 – 2,500 (or 2,478 as per Sunday’s PRR)

2) Accelerating wave 3 lower (which could erase another 10% fairly quickly)
are still alive
.”

In case you are new to Ellliott Wave Theory (one of the many indicators of the multi-indicator approach), here is a description of a wave 3:

Wave 3 is the longest and most powerful of all Elliott Waves. Wave 3 continues to move higher (or lower) despite overbought (or oversold) momentum and sentiment readings. A common target for wave 3 is a Fibonacci 1.618 of wave 1 (which currently is 2,269 for the S&P 500).

Pros and Cons

One ‘drawback’ of the multi-indicator approach is that you will rarely hear a flashy ‘all or nothing’ call.

The benefit is that you will rarely be on the losing end of such a call. The multi-indicator approach does however, outline when the risk of a crash or the potential of a spike is elevated.

And perhaps most importantly, there are times when nearly all indicators point in the same direction to form a potent and very reliable buy/sell signal (such as in March 2009, October 2011, February 2016).

Based on what I’m seeing right now, it seems like we are nearing such a signal.

The latest S&P 500 forecast is available here: Short-term S&P 500 Update

Simon Maierhofer is the founder of iSPYETF and the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. Barron’s rated iSPYETF as a “trader with a good track record” (click here for Barron’s evaluation of the Profit Radar Report). The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013, 17.59% in 2014, 24.52% in 2015, 52.26% in 2016, and 23.39% in 2017.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF e-Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

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S&P 500 at ‘Make it or Break it’ Level

The S&P 500 has reached a seemingly important ‘make it or brake it’ zone. Here’s why:

For the last couple of weeks, I’ve been following two scenarios:

1) Washout decline with target of 2,500 – 2,500 (purple arrow, chart below)
2) Accelerating wave 3 lower (yellow arrow, chart below)

The two scenarios were first introduced via the December 9 Profit Radar Report, which stated that:

A brief drop below 2,618 (with next support at 2,607, 2,550 and perhaps as low as 2,500) followed by a quick recovery would preserve the bullish divergences and suggest sellers got ‘washed out’ and a year-end rally is underway. Persistent trade below 2,618 and 2,607 means we need to allow for more weakness.”

Barron’s rates iSPYETF as “trader with a good track record” and Investor’s Business Daily says: “When Simon says, the market listens.” Find out why Barron’s and IBD endorse Simon Maierhofer’s Profit Radar Report.

Both scenario had the same outcome, mentioned in the December 12 Profit Radar Report: “We assume with a high degree of certainty that this rally will ultimately re-lapse to new lows. The question is not if but when.”

Although I amended the ideal down side target for scenario #1 to 2,478 (December 16 Profit Radar Report), the decline has gone a bit further than I initially thought.

Nevertheless, up until now, both scenarios pointed in the same direction. That’s no longer the case.

A (sustained) break below the blue trend channel and Fibonacci support (both around 2,478) will tilt the odds significantly towards scenario #2, which could see the S&P drop another 100 – 300 points.

Assessing the Odds

Based on Elliott Wave Theory, the odds are 50/50.

Statistically, the odds of a breakdown are less than 15%. How so?

The red graph below shows the average path of the past 10 bear markets (as defined by Ned Davis Research). On average, the S&P does not fall more than 16% during the average bear market (this average includes the 2000 and 2008 bear markets).

Today’s performance was unique and remarkable in many ways:

  • S&P 500 closed down 1.54%, but VIX was unchanged
    Since 1992, VIX was unchanged or lower when the S&P was down more than 1% only 32 other times. Over the next month, the S&P rose 81% of the time, on average 2.4%
  • S&P 500 turned a >1.5% gain into a >1.5% loss
    Since 1982, the S&P turned a >1.5% gain into a >1.5% loss 7 other times. 1 week, and 1 month later it was up 86% of the time.
  • S&P 500 lost > 1.5% on an FOMC day
    Since 1996, the S&P lost >1.5% on a FOMC day 5 other times. 1 week later, it was up 60% of the time, 1 month later it was up 80% of the time (datasource: SentimenTrader).

Summary

The S&P 500 just suffered the worst start to a December since 1931. Although statistical odds favor a bounce from here, Elliott Wave Theory cautions that a break below 2,478 can unleash another wave of selling.

Continued updates are available via the Profit Radar Report.

Simon Maierhofer is the founder of iSPYETF and the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. Barron’s rated iSPYETF as a “trader with a good track record” (click here for Barron’s evaluation of the Profit Radar Report). The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013, 17.59% in 2014, 24.52% in 2015, 52.26% in 2016, and 23.39% in 2017.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF e-Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

Crude Oil Could Fall Another 50%

Crude oil prices dropped 38% since October 3. The June 20, 2018 Profit Radar Report published the following analysis and projections:

The two charts below show two possible longer-term Elliott Wave Theory counts:

  • The first one implies that a major top is in.
  • The second one implies that we’ll see another high before a major top.”

Barron’s rates iSPYETF as “trader with a good track record” and Investor’s Business Daily says: “When Simon says, the market listens.” Find out why Barron’s and IBD endorse Simon Maierhofer’s Profit Radar Report.

The November 25 Profit Radar Report stated that trade may bounce from the descending green support trend line, but warned that:

The 2008 and 2014 decline caution that failure to bounce despite being over-sold can lead to continued losses. In fact, the chart below shows that the chart pattern of 2018 looks similar (perhaps a smaller fractal) to the chart pattern of 2011 – 2015 (blue boxes).”

Oil prices did bounce from the green support line, but it failed to get above 55, which according to the December 9 Profit Radar Report was needed for a bigger snap back rally.

Price is once again nearing over-sold, and a bullish divergence exists, but betting on bounces in a bear market takes impeccable timing.

Continued updates are available via the Profit Radar Report.

Simon Maierhofer is the founder of iSPYETF and the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. Barron’s rated iSPYETF as a “trader with a good track record” (click here for Barron’s evaluation of the Profit Radar Report). The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013, 17.59% in 2014, 24.52% in 2015, 52.26% in 2016, and 23.39% in 2017.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF e-Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

What’s Next: New Highs or Lows?

Even just a quick glance at the S&P 500 chart reveals a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, buyers and sellers. Although there’ve been many – at time violent – swings, there’s been no net progress.

What will we see first, new highs or new lows? Here’s a look at various pieces of market research:

Long-term:

Hypervolatility – April 11, 2018 Profit Radar Report:

What a contrast: In 2017, the S&P 500 swung more than 1% on only 10 days. That’s measured from daily high to low, not open to close. In 2018, the S&P 500 had already 41 daily swings of more than 1%.

Below is a closer look at actual volatility, not the VIX. The first chart plots the S&P 500 against the daily percentage change measured from high to low (gray graph) along with a 20-day SMA of the daily percentage change (blue graph).

Barron’s rates iSPYETF as “trader with a good track record” and Investor’s Business Daily says: “When Simon says, the market listens.” Find out why Barron’s and IBD endorse Simon Maierhofer’s Profit Radar Report.

In February, the daily swing range was nearly as big as in September 2015 and January 2016, which is when stocks bottomed. Back then, volatility came and went quickly (like the shape of a ‘V’). This time around, volatility is lingering longer.

The second chart provides a long-term perspective, which includes the 1974, 1987, 2002, 2007, and 2011 market lows. Back then, daily swings (20-day SMA) peaked around 4%, twice the current average of around 2%.

Based on positive liquidity (NYC a/d line) and the parallels to 2011, it’s unlikely that the daily swing range will double from 2% to 4% as stocks melt lower.

The main takeaway is that volatility extremes are usually seen towards market lows.”

Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) – February 11, 2018 Profit Radar Report:

For well over a year stocks have almost exclusively gone up, slow but steady. For the past two weeks, stocks have gone down quickly.

What’s next? The temptation (and trap) is to think two dimensional – up or down – since that’s most of what we’ve experienced lately. However, stocks could also go sideways for a period of time.

The weekly S&P 500 chart provides some long-term perspective. 1 – 2 – 3 is how we label the rally from the February 2016 low. Wave 3 (wave 5 of wave 3 to be exact) extended much higher than normal.

Based on EWT, wave 3 is followed by wave 4, which is where we are currently at. Waves 4 are generally choppy, range-bound, long-winded, unpredictable corrections that retrace ideally 38.2% of the preceding wave 3. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is at 2,536 (reached on Friday).

In terms of price, wave 4 has already reached its down side target. In terms of time, wave 4 would be unusually short.”

Liquidity – April 18, 2018 Profit Radar Report:

On the bullish side of the ledger, we find that the NY Composite advance/decline line (and NYC OCO a/d line) made new all time highs. This follows the bullish divergence noted in the April 4 PRR.

Long-term summary:The weight of evidence suggests that this correction will be temporary and followed by new all-time highs. But how much longer will this correction last and how low can it go?

Short/Mid-term:

Breadth – May 2, 2018 Profit Radar Report:

As early as February 11, the Profit Radar Report expected a frustrating, drawn out correction like in 2011. There are many parallels between the 2011 and 2018 correction, but here is one difference:

In 2011, there were multiple strong up days (where more than 80% or 90% of stocks advanced – green lines), and strong down days (where more than 90% of stocks declined – red lines).

The strong down days exhausted sellers, and the strong up days indicated internal strength not yet reflected in price.

The 2018 correction is much different. There’ve been only two days that come close to be considered a 90% down day, and only one 80% up day.

To end this sideways range, it appears that either more 90% down days or 80%-90% up days (like in October 2011, see green arrow) are needed. Ideally we’d like to see both, first a bout of strong down days followed by strong up days.”

Seasonality, cycles, pattern – May 6, 9, 2018 Profit Radar Report:

Based on mid-term seasonality (blue graph, chart below), the S&P has a tendency to bottom between late June and late September. Cycles are fairly similar to seasonality at this time.

Year-to-date the S&P is down 0.38%. Since 1950, the S&P 500 showed at loss of 1% (but no more than 5% below 200-day SMA) after the first 4 months 17 other times.. 6 of those 17 instances occurred in mid-term election years (like 2018). The average full-year performance is shown below (average bottom: trading day #193).”

Summary:

The April 2 Profit Radar Report (when the S&P 500 closed at 2,582) stated that: “The S&P 500 has met the minimum criteria to consider this correction complete. There is, however, a difference between minimum and ideal.”

The S&P continues to be stuck in the ‘twilight zone between minimum and ideal.’

Short-term, the May 13 Profit Radar Report probably defined it best: “The S&P 500 broke above triangle resistance. Although we view this breakout with a fair amount of skepticism, we need to allow for higher prices while trade remains above 2,700. Due to the overbought condition, it is unlikely for the S&P to move above 2,750 early this week.”

Continued updates will be available via the Profit Radar Report.

Simon Maierhofer is the founder of iSPYETF and the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. Barron’s rated iSPYETF as a “trader with a good track record” (click here for Barron’s profile of the Profit Radar Report). The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013, 17.59% in 2014, and 24.52% in 2015.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

Simple, Common Sense S&P 500 Update

For almost two years, investors were spoiled with low volatility and high returns, but recent market action has rattled the cage.

Will there be more ‘cage rattling!’ If so, how much?

Sometimes a simple common sense analysis is the best one. KISS.

KISS

The February 11 Profit Radar Report stated that: “For well over a year stocks have almost exclusively gone up, slow but steady. For the past two weeks, stocks have gone down quickly. What’s next? The temptation and trap is to think two dimensional – up or down – since that’s most of what we’ve experienced lately. However, stocks could also go sideways for a period of time.”

On March 27, the S&P 500 was less than 7 points away from its February 9 close. Sideways indeed.

The February 11 Profit Radar Report also provided common sense long-term context via the chart and commentary below:

1 – 2 – 3 is how we label the rally from the February 2016 low (according to Elliott Wave Theory – EWT). Wave 3 (wave 5 of wave 3 to be exact) extended much higher than normal (blue box).

Based on EWT, wave 3 is followed by wave 4, which is where we are currently at. Waves 4 are generally choppy, range-bound, long-winded, unpredictable corrections that retrace ideally 38.2% of the preceding wave 3. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is at 2,536.

In terms of price, wave 4 has already reached its down side target. In terms of time, wave 4 would be unusually short.”

Barron’s rates iSPYETF as “trader with a good track record” and Investor’s Business Daily says: “When Simon says, the market listens.” Find out why Barron’s and IBD endorse Simon Maierhofer’s Profit Radar Report.

Wave 3 lasted almost 15 month (November 4, 2016 – January 26, 2018). The February ‘mini meltdown’ inflicted an 11.8% loss in only 10 days. Is a 10-day pullback commensurate to a 15-month rally? Not really!

The Conclusion (and Solution)

After looking at dozens of different indicators and patterns, the February 11 Profit Radar Report concluded as follows:

We’ve been looking to buy the dip. Is this the dip to buy? When boiling down all our indicators to a few sentences, we find that a bounce from Friday’s (February 9) low is probable. The bounce however may turn into a period of range-bound up-and-down market action, not an immediate directional up move. A path similar to 2011 (retest of original panic low). Hopefully volatility in coming days/weeks will provide a better (lower) entry.”

Find out which low-risk sector ETF the Profit Radar Report recommended on February 11.

The chart below compares the 2011 correction with the 2018 pullback (blue box). In 2011, it took 25 days before the S&P tested (and briefly exceeded) the initial panic low. A similar pattern is developing now.

Here are 3 factors to keep in mind:

  1. This wave 4 correction does not have to exceed the February low to be complete
  2. Due to the duration of the preceding rally, this wave 4 correction could last longer than in 2011
  3. In 2011, it took almost 5 months for the S&P to rally from the its low to a new high

The March 24 Profit Radar Report outlined the ideal path going forward along with target levels and an actual price projection.

Naturally we will be alert for curveballs (one of which is over the top bearish), but if the S&P 500 follows our ideal path reasonably close, it should set up a solid buying opportunity.

Continued updates and analysis is available via the Profit Radar Report.

Simon Maierhofer is the founder of iSPYETF and the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. Barron’s rated iSPYETF as a “trader with a good track record” (click here for Barron’s profile of the Profit Radar Report). The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013, 17.59% in 2014, and 24.52% in 2015.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

 

S&P 500 Update

The February 11 Profit Radar Report featured the chart below and stated that: “Based on Elliott Wave Theory, wave 3 is followed by wave 4, which is where we are currently at. Waves 4 are generally choppy, range-bound, long-winded, unpredictable corrections that retrace ideally 38.2% of the preceding wave 3. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is at 2,536 (reached on Friday). In terms of price, wave 4 has already reached its down side target. In terms of time, wave 4 would be unusually short.”

After hitting 2,536 on February 9, the S&P 500 rallied as projected by this chart shown in the February 8 Profit Radar Report (Tuesday’s high at 2,789 was a bit higher than outlined in the last S&P 500 update).

Barron’s rates iSPYETF as “trader with a good track record” and Investor’s Business Daily says: “When Simon says, the market listens.” Find out why Barron’s and IBD endorse Simon Maierhofer’s Profit Radar Report.

It is possible to count 5 waves up from the February 9 low to the February 27 high.

A 5-wave rally is always followed by a pullback, that’s why the February 25 Profit Radar Report mentioned the possibility of a ‘false breakout.’ The chart below shows the wave labels and common Fibonacci retracement support levels (particularly applicable for scenario #1).

Bigger Picture

The two charts below outline how the rally from the February 9 low and the decline from the February 27 high may fit into the bigger picture.

Scenario #1 assumes that wave 4 completed on February 9. The rally from February 9 – 27 is wave 1 of wave 5. Wave 2 of wave 5 is now underway (see hourly chart for common retracement levels for waves 2).

Scenario #2 projects an ongoing, choppy wave 4 correction and eventual retest of the February panic low.

Both scenarios have a common denominator: New highs once the correction is complete. The shape of the decline should tell us which scenario we’re dealing with.

Summary

Barring a low-odd waterfall decline, the weight of evidence suggests a buy the dip approach.

Continued updates with down side targets are available via the Profit Radar Report.

Simon Maierhofer is the founder of iSPYETF and the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. Barron’s rated iSPYETF as a “trader with a good track record” (click here for Barron’s profile of the Profit Radar Report). The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013, 17.59% in 2014, and 24.52% in 2015.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

 

Dollar, Euro, Gold Update

Dollar Update

The January 2 Profit Radar Report published this chart and long-term US Dollar Index forecast:

The US Dollar Index could be at or near the end of a 5 ½ year rally. As per Elliott Wave Theory, it is possible to count 5 waves up from the May 2011 low. There are bearish divergences at the December highs, and investor sentiment is in favor of a lower dollar. We are alert for a potential multi-month US dollar decline.”

As it turns out, the US Dollar Index actually peaked on January 3, and spent the next 8 months falling lower.

In August/September we were expecting a bottom, but at the time we were not sure how big of a bounce to expect.

In November it became clear that the rally from the September 8 low to the October 27 high was only 3 waves, a first indication that the dollar bounce was over (a 5-wave move higher would have marked a trend change according to Elliott Wave Theory).

The chart below reflects the most likely Elliott Wave Theory count, which projects a more significant low in early 2018.

Smart money dollar hedgers are near record long the dollar, which could lead to a more sustainable rally even before the dollar reaches new lows (a solid close above 95 prior to a new low would suggest that the wave 5 low is already in).

However, hedgers are often early and may become even more bullish in the coming weeks. The lower the dollar falls, the better the buy signal.

Corresponding long dollar ETF: PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish Fund (UUP)

EUR/USD (Euro)

The euro (EUR/USD) generally moves in the opposite direction of the dollar.

Since the above dollar analysis provides a multi-month forecast, we’ll use the EUR/USD for a short-term outlook.

On November 14, the EUR/USD broke above the black trend channel, and re-tested that channel on November 21 (blue circle).

The November 20 Profit Radar Report said that: “The EUR/USD is near support around 1.17. This could serve as springboard for new recovery highs.”

We now expect a rally above 1.21. The gray trend channel provides some short-term support/resistance levels. Trade should not drop below 1.17.

RSI appears unlikely to confirm new highs above 1.21, which would harmonize nicely with our expectation of a larger pullback.

Smart money euro hedgers, however, are nearly record short the euro, which will draw the euro down eventually. We’d love an opportunity to short the euro above 1.21 against a bearish RSI divergence.

Corresponding inverse euro ETF: ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO)

Corresponding euro ETF: CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE)

Gold

This September 28 article included a detailed long-term outlook for gold.

The October 4 Profit Radar Report said all there was to know about gold for the weeks to come: “Support for gold is at 1,245 – 1,260. Resistance is at 1,298 – 1,304. For now, gold is likely to trade between support and resistance.”

Gold is pushing the upper boundary of the outlined trading range, but thus far there’s been no breakout. Silver failed to confirm gold’s push higher, which can be a warning signal. On balance volume has been increasing, which is a positive. Nevertheless, we would view a break above 1,307 with suspicion.

Corresponding gold ETFs:
SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)
iShares Gold Trust (IAU)

Corresponding inverse gold ETFs:
ProShares UltraShort Gold (GLL)

Continued forecasts for the US Dollar, EUR/USD, gold and silver are available via the Profit Radar Report.

Simon Maierhofer is the founder of iSPYETF and the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. Barron’s rated iSPYETF as a “trader with a good track record” (click here for Barron’s profile of the Profit Radar Report). The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013, 17.59% in 2014, and 24.52% in 2015.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

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