Party Over for Nasdaq QQQ, AAPL, AMZN?

Tech stocks have been on fire before hitting an ‘air pocket’ last week. Is the current dip the end of the tech party or a buying opportunity?

After pointing out Fibonacci resistance (for QQQ) at 143.75, the May 31 Profit Radar Report noted that: “The Nasdaq-100 painted a bearish reversal candle today. Every red candle high (since October 2013) saw lower prices at some point over the next 1-2 weeks.”

Seven days after the May 31 bearish reversal candle, the Nasdaq suffered a monster reversal candle. Volume (for QQQ) soared to a 2017 record. The June 9 ‘red stick’ erased 10 days of gains.

On that day, more than one third of the 100 QQQ ETF components suffered a buying climax (where a stock rallies to a new 52-week high, but ends down for the week). Buying climaxes are generally a sign of distribution and indicate that stocks are moving from strong to weak hands.

Similar buying climaxes in 2010, 2014, and 2015 led to noteworthy pullbacks.

The problem with extreme ‘air pocket’ days (like June 9) is that they almost instantly create an oversold condition, and the propensity for a bounce.

Next support for QQQ is at 137.20 – 135.70. Resistance is around 141. Support may cause another bounce, but risk of further losses remains elevated as long as QQQ is below 141.

AAPL

Due to its humungous market cap, AAPL is Wall Streets’ VIP and MVP stock. More often than not, if AAPL sneezes, the S&P 500, Nasdaq and at times DJIA will catch a cold.

Based on the long-term black trend channel(s), we determined that up side for AAPL (and indexes like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq) was limited after hitting 155 in May.

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Support worth watching is around 140 and 135.

AMZN

The May 29 Profit Radar Report stated: “AMZN almost cracked the 1,000 mark, which more than anything is a psychological ‘resistance’ level. Cycles project a severe drop for AMZN. Last time this happened (late 2015), AMZN reacted late, but ultimately dropped around 30%. Although more gains are possible, late buyers will probably end up regretting their decision.”

Since May 29, AMZN gained as much as 2%, but subsequently dropped as much as 8.8%, before finding support around 925 (green line). 925 and support near the black trend channel deserve to be watched. It would take a move above 991 to unlock the potential for new highs.

Summary

Based on our research, we don’t expect to see a major market top at this time, but QQQ, AAPL and AMZN are likely to enter a period of consolidation and quite possible some ‘shake out’ moves designed to shake out weak hands.

The Profit Radar Report’s goal is to simplify investing decisions, avoid big losses and spot high probability, low-risk trades. The Profit Radar Report hasn’t suffered a losing trade since June 2015.

A comprehensive analysis for the S&P 500 is available here: Comprehensive S&P 500 Update

Simon Maierhofer is the founder of iSPYETF and the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. Barron’s rated iSPYETF as a “trader with a good track record” (click here for Barron’s profile of the Profit Radar Report). The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013, 17.59% in 2014, and 24.52% in 2015.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

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S&P 500 Reaches Up Side Target – Now What?

The S&P 500 has reached the up side target zone highlighted in February and August/September 2016. Now what?

The August 28, 2016 PRR published the chart below and stated: “Elliott Wave Theory and the June breadth thrust suggest that any weakness will be bought (perhaps even furiously). We consider the longer-term up side potential to be significantly larger than the down side risk.”

Barron’s rates iSPYETF as “trader with a good track record” and Investor’s Bussines Daily says “When Simon says, the market listens.” Find out why Barron’s and IBD endorse Simon Maierhofer’s Profit Radar Report.

Since the wave 2 pullback was on the shallow side, the dark green Elliott Wave Theory count (with wave 3 target around 2,390) became operative.

The September 5, 2016 Profit Radar Report said the following: “The chart below shows the long-term up side target purely based on projected symmetry. Based on the 1997 – 2013 trading range, the measured up side target is S&P 2,330 – 2,485, which is in the general vicinity of the 2,290 – 2,342 Fibonacci levels mentioned in the 2016 S&P 500 Forecast. Higher targets are possible, but we’ll reassess once we get there.”

As the updated symmetry chart shows, “we are here!” Now what?

Stocks are at peak momentum (35-day RSI is at the highest level in 20+ years). As the Profit Radar Report highlighted many times in the past (most recently on December 14), stocks rarely ever top at peak momentum.

This means, we are not at a major market top. But the risk of a pullback is increasing. The latest Profit Radar Report shows the most likely spot for a pullback, along with the scope of any pullback.

Simon Maierhofer is the founder of iSPYETF and the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. Barron’s rated iSPYETF as a “trader with a good track record” (click here for Barron’s profile of the Profit Radar Report). The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013, 17.59% in 2014, and 24.52% in 2015.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

S&P 500 Breaks Below Support

The May 11 Profit Radar Report featured the VIX:VXV ratio (click here for chart and more details) and concluded that: “Today’s S&P 500 reversal after closing the open chart gap neutralizes and reversed the bullish edge discussed Sunday. Potential near-term target: Below 2,040.”

Barron’s rates the iSPYETF as a “trader with a good track record.” Click here for Barron’s assessment of the Profit Radar Report.

As the chart below shows, 2,040+/- is important not only because it’s been tested ten times since April. It is also:

  • A long-term Fibonacci projection level
  • Short-term Fibonacci retracement level
  • Double trend channel support
  • Neckline of a potential head-and shoulders pattern

Yesterday’s Profit Radar Report pointed out internal deterioration and stated:

Price is masking internal weakness. Even though the S&P didn’t close at a new low, the % of S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day SMA dropped to the lowest level since February 19, and the NY Comp a/d line dipped to a 10-day low. According to Elliott Wave Theory, a notable drop (wave 3 down) could be on the horizon. Various other indicators contradict each other, but show a general bias towards lower prices (perhaps indicating a choppy stair-step decline). With or without prior bounce, the odds favor a drop below 2,040.”

The S&P 500 is now below key support. Regardless of the exact shape and scope of the decline, this puts the bears in the drivers seat until further notice (= break above resistance, or bullish divergence against support).

There is a real chance the S&P will continue to follow the projection featured in the April 13 Profit Radar Report, also published here.

One word of caution: The importance of the 2,040 level has become quite obvious. Mr. Market takes pleasure in fooling the obvious trade. We’ll be watching various breadth and sentiment indicators (and support around 2,020) even more closely for tell-tale signs of a ‘fool the crowd curveball.’

Continued S&P 500 analysis is available via the Profit Radar Report.

Simon Maierhofer is the founder of iSPYETF and the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. Barron’s rated iSPYETF as a “trader with a good track record” (click here for Barron’s profile of the Profit Radar Report). The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013, 17.59% in 2014, and 24.52% in 2015.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

Short-term S&P 500 Forecast

Here is a brief excerpt from Sunday’s (November 15) Profit Radar Report (PRR), which highlighted the key short-term S&P 500 level to watch … and much more:

“The S&P 500 chart is painting a truly fascinating constellation. First we’ll take a look at the two most likely outcomes, than we’ll discuss probabilities.

The S&P couldn’t get off the mat at 2,040, which resulted in a drop to 2,022, as proposed in the November 12 PRR.

2,021 is a special support level. Why? (see blue bubbles)

  • It’s the September spike high
  • It acted as support/resistance in October
  • It is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the rally from the August 24 low to the November 3 high.

Elliott Wave Theory is another facet adding to the allure of the 2,021 level. The S&P rallied in a discernable 3-wave pattern from the August 24 low (black numbers).

If the rally from the August low is a counter trend move, it likely ended on November 3 at 2,116.48. If that’s the case, the S&P should work its way towards and perhaps beyond the August low (red arrow).

If the rally from the August 24 low wants to turn into a 5-wave move, the rally is likely to continue next week. If that’s the case, the decline from the November 3 high is a wave 4 correction, followed by a wave 5 rally to new highs (green number + green arrow).

Based purely on chart analysis, both scenarios are equally viable.

The CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio (dark blue – bottom graph) shows that option traders are bearish to an extreme.

S&P 500 seasonality (light blue – top graph) is predominantly bullish for the remainder of the year.

S&P 500 futures are currently down 8 points and were down as much as 20 points in Sunday night’s trade. If weakness continues overnight, the S&P 500 cash index may open below 2,020 in the morning.

Stocks are oversold and a gap down open could easily be reversed. Just as it wasn’t smart to chase the up side in early November, it isn’t prudent to chase the down side at this moment.

We will consider going long the S&P if it drops below 2,020 and subsequently closes above 2,020.”

The green bars show the performance since Sunday. As suggested by the CBOE equity put/call ratio and seasonality, the S&P 500 bounced from key support at 2,020.

The simplified conclusion is that the path of least resistance is up as long as support at 2,020 holds.

A break below 2,020 does not necessarily have to be bearish, but it would complicate the structure and possibly result in a whipsaw across 2,020

Continued updates are available via the Profit Radar Report.

Simon Maierhofer is the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013 and 17.59% in 2014.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

 

Stock Market Liquidity is Drying Up

Money makes the world go round and vice versa.

We’ve all had a front seat watching the Federal Reserve pump up stocks with QE cash.

Money is like a lubricant. Lack of money, is like ‘sand in the works.’

For the first time since 2007, we are actually seeing signs of liquidity shrinkage.

A while ago I was wondering if there is enough strength behind the latest rally leg to drive stocks to new all-time highs. And if so, could stocks sustain trade above all-time highs?

To get the answer, I turned to the same indicator that foreshadowed the 1987, 2000 and 2007 market tops, and virtually ‘guaranteed’ new bull market highs after the 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2014 correction. I call this powerful gauge ‘secret sauce’ (more later).

New All-time Highs?

Since the beginning of the 2009 bull market, the S&P 500 suffered five corrections of 9% or more (based on closing prices). The summer 2015 meltdown was the most recent one (-12.35% from high to low).

To gauge the longevity of the rally from the August 2015 panic low (S&P 1,867), we will be comparing the current rally with the rallies from the 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2014 bottoms.

With four weeks of gains in the rear-view mirror, we can do just that. As of Friday, October 23, 2015, the S&P 500 recovered slightly more than a Fibonacci 78.6% (78.85%) of the prior losses. This will be our benchmark.

To gauge the strength of the various rallies from their original low, we need more than just a price chart. We need a pulse on internal strength, buying power and liquidity.

Price and internal strength go together like horsepower (or kilowatts) and battery life. You can only judge an electric cars capability once you know horsepower and battery life. The same is true for stocks. To make a decent assessment we need to get a good feel for price and internal strength.

As mentioned earlier, my preferred strength and liquidity indicator is ‘secret sauce.’ Why ‘secret sauce’ is so potent, and why it’s called secret sauce is discussed here.

Again, we will use ‘secret sauce’ to measure and compare the strength of the S&P 500 after having retraced about 78.8% of the losses that led to major lows in 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2014.

The chart below plots the S&P 500 against ‘secret sauce.’ The blue boxes start at the pre-correction high, and end at the 78.8% S&P retracement level.

As the ascending green lines indicate, there was a ton of liquidity behind the 2010, 2011 and 2012 rallies. “Secret sauce’ retraced 119.75 – 193.47% by the time the S&P retraced 78.8% of its losses. Not surprisingly, the bull market continued plowing higher thereafter.

The rally from the 2014 low was not quite as dynamic. Although it led to new all-time highs, this particular rally turned very choppy and eventually gave back all gains.

The table lists the exact details of each rally.

In one way, the rally from the August 2015 panic low is similar to the 2014 rally (‘secret sauce’ retraced barely 70% in 2014 and 2015).

However, unlike in 2014, secret sauce is flashing the same signals now as it did before the 1987, 2000 and 2007 market tops. More details here. S&P 500 Threatening to Follow 2007 Topping Pattern

Simon Maierhofer is the publisher of the Profit Radar ReportThe Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013 and 17.59% in 2014.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

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S&P 500 Short-Term Forecast

The S&P 500 has been without significant correction for over 1,000 days. According to many, a deep correction is ‘just around the corner’ (and has been around the corner since April). Here’s the only thing that actually may trigger a correction.

The S&P 500 is showing some weakness this week. Will this morph into a full-blown sell off?

Here’s a look at an indicator that’s been spot on – percentR. percentR is a momentum indicator that can be used to determine entry and exit points.

Never heard of it? That’s because you won’t read about this indicator on CNBC, MarketWatch or Bloomberg. That’s is a good thing. Just recall how many charts and indicators the media has used in recent months to warn of a major crash (too much media coverage spoils any good indicator).

The chart below shows the recent correlation between percentR and the S&P 500.

There are different ways to use percentR. I like to use it to help confirm a change of trend. Here’s how that works:

Allow me to ease into the explanation with a practical application, an excerpt taken from the June 18 Profit Radar Report:

“percentR doesn’t tell us how far this rally will go, but it may help us determine when it’s over. A failed low-risk entry would signal a change in character of this rally leg, as every low-risk entry since May has been bought.”

An initial percentR dip below 80 is called a ‘bullish low-risk entry’.

The arrows mark all bullish low-risk entries since February. There have been eight bullish low-risk entries.

Six of them (black arrows) marked a short-term low. One (red arrow) was a false alarm and one (dashed area) turned into a failed low-risk entry and (slightly) lower prices.

What is a failed low-risk entry? When the S&P 500 closes below the level (daily low) that triggered the low-risk entry (dashed red box).

In other words, an S&P 500 (NYSEArca: SPY) close below Tuesday’s low at 1,959.46 (bold green line) would be a failed bullish low-risk entry and the initial sign of a change of trend.

The 1,959 area seems significant, because it is compounded by the 20-day SMA (1,959) and a long-term Fibonacci support/resistance level (1,955).

Therefore, a close below 1,959 – 1,955 would be a warning signal.

There are a number of reasons why the S&P 500 should correct, but as long as it doesn’t close below 1,959 – 1955, they don’t matter.

However, one ‘wild card’ needs to be watched carefully, even if the S&P 500 closes below 1,955. This ‘wild card’ is obvious to everyone, but recognized by few. It also predicted the most recent 100+ S&P rally.

Here is more fascinating details about this must watch wild card:

Media Wild Card: The Only Indicator That Foresaw a Rally with No Correction

Simon Maierhofer is the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

S&P 500: When Will the Trading Range Break?

There’s a time to buy, a time to sell and a time to be patient. Most of 2014 falls into the ‘be patient’ category. What’s causing this extended trading range and how much longer can it go on?

Since the beginning of the year, the S&P 500 hasn’t gone anywhere. Here’s why:

Limited Up Side

The S&P 500 has been struggling to break through technical resistance. The dashed red trend channel and solid red Fibonacci resistance have clipped the wings of the S&P 500 every time it staged an attempt to fly above resistance.

The first chart shows that aside from the January/February dip, the S&P 500 has been restricted to a range defined by predetermined support/resistance levels.

The second chart provides the long-term context needed to make sense of the highlighted support/resistance levels.

Limited Down Side

Obviously, the S&P 500 (NYSEArca: SPY) has bounced from technical support several times, but there’s been another reason why the S&P 500 hasn’t broken down.

It’s the ‘media put.’ Unlike the ‘Bernanke put’ (now Yellen put), which is cash driven, the ‘media put’ is information driven.

The media is the last entity qualified to dispense financial advice, but that’s exactly what they do. Unfortunately, enough investors are listening making the media a contrarian indicator.

Here’s some of the ‘advice’ (headlines) the media has been giving:

Yahoo Talking Numbers: “Why sell in May adage makes sense this year” – April 28
CNBC: “This chart says we’re in for a 20% correction” – May 1
CNBC: “Bubble talk catches fire among big-money pros” – May 5

The S&P 500 rarely dances to the tune of the media’s whistle, that’s why the Profit Radar Report expected a pop and drop combo to fool the ‘here comes the crash’ crowd.

The May 7 Profit Radar Report stated that: “A false pop to 1,900 – 1,915 would shake out the weak bears and set up a better opportunity to go short.”

When Will the Range Break?

The pop to S&P 1,902 on May 13 certainly rattled the cage of premature bears. A break below key support (key levels outlined in the most recent Profit Radar Report) may usher in the long-awaited 10%+ correction.

Could the correction morph into something bigger?

One indicator with the distinct reputation of signaling the 2000 and 2007 meltdowns is at the verge of triggering another ‘crash signal.’ But there’s one caveat.

Here’s the full intriguing story:

A Look at the Risk Gauge that Correctly Signaled the 2000 and 2007 Tops

Simon Maierhofer is the publisher of the Profit Radar ReportThe Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.