Some say if it’s too obvious, it’s obviously wrong, but when it comes to the Russell 2000 you may ask: How could you have missed this? The media proclaimed the Russell 2000 in a ‘correction’ just before it bounced from key support (three times).
Sometimes the financial media sacrifices accuracy (or neutrality) to deliver the WOW effect.
That’s why we read headlines like this:
“Scary October Start for Stocks; Russell in Correction.”
Perhaps this particular WOW-focused media outlet felt it was close enough to Halloween to paint a 1.32% S&P 500 and 1.54% Russell 2000 drop as ‘scary.’
A correction is often (arbitrarily) defined as a 10% decline. From March to May and once again from July to September, the Russell 2000 lost 10%. A correction? Maybe.
The chart below shows why labeling anything Russell related as ‘scary’ or ‘correction’ was premature.
Every pullback, or ‘correction’ since November 2013 ended at support at 1,080.
I picked on this fear-mongering headline in the October 1 Profit Radar Report and commented that:
“The Russell remains above support around 1,080. I suppose that even novices are able to spot this support level by now, so it probably doesn’t mean as much as it did in February and May. Nevertheless, the odds for some sort of bounce from here are above average.”
Well, I was kind of wrong. 1,080 meant just as much last week as it did the prior three times it was touched.
At some point this support will become too obvious for its own (or investors) good, but one thing is for certain:
Correction or not, bears cannot make any real progress unless the Russell 2000 breaks below 1,080.
The corresponding support level for the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSEArca: IWM) is 107.
Will the Russell 2000 break below 1,080 in October? Sunday’s special Profit Radar Report includes detailed analysis on what new lows would mean for the stock market and whether the market is carving out a major top.
The conclusion is not ‘scary’, but probably surprising for most people.
Simon Maierhofer is the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013.
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