Gold Update

In August 2018, gold carved out the bottom outlined via this projection published in the August 29 Profit Radar Radar Report.

Gold appears to have finished the first leg of this rally on February 20 at 1,350, which was followed by a 70-point drop.

The March 10 Profit Radar Report featured this gold chart, which projected a rally to about 1,320 followed by a drop back into the 1,250 range.

Gold made it as high as 1,325. As the updated chart shows, price dropped below the short-term black trend channel today (red arrow).

This is the first indication trade should work towards our buy target. The coming days will hopefully bring further confirmation.

Popular gold ETFs include:

SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)

iShares Gold Trust (IAU)

Continued updates are available via the Profit Radar Report.

Simon Maierhofer is the founder of iSPYETF and the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. Barron’s rated iSPYETF as a “trader with a good track record” (click here for Barron’s evaluation of the Profit Radar Report). The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013, 17.59% in 2014, 24.52% in 2015, 52.26% in 2016, and 23.39% in 2017.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF e-Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

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Gold Seasonality Projects Higher Gold Prices

As far as indicators go, gold seasonality has been on fire.

Gold seasonality projected a top in late January. The January 25 Profit Radar Report warned that: “Gold seasonality is starting to turn sour.”

From January 22 – July 24, gold prices tumbled 17.8%.

The July 19 Profit Radar Report pointed out that: “Seasonality will turn strongly bullish in early August.”

Gold and gold ETFs already soared 6.9% since the August 6 seasonal gold low.

The gold seasonality chart projects further gold gains until early October. This, by the way, does not mean that there won’t be any pullbacks.

Meticulously hand-crafted seasonality charts for all major asset classes are available to subscribers of the Profit Radar Report.

Gold seasonality is only one indicator, but it wasn’t the only indicator suggesting a gold rally. The July 21 article “Gold Looks so Bad, it Might Actually be Good” highlights 3 bullish gold development.

Technical analysis also suggested that a tradable bottom was formed on July 24.

The July 26 Profit Radar Report published the chart below (including the yellow projection) and stated the following: “The daily bar chart shows a bullish reversal candle at Friday’s low. Friday’s intraday reversal satisfies the basic requirements for a tradeable low. As long as Friday’s low (1,075.60) holds, odds favor higher prices with a target above 1,300. We will buy a small amount of gold on a move above 1,100. The equivalent level for SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEArca: GLD is around 105.50.”

Simon Maierhofer is the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013 and 17.59% in 2014.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

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Simon Says: 3 Most Contrarian ETFs to Own Right Now

Here are three contrarian picks for die-hard contrarians and those who missed the latest stock market rally. Two trades are true bottom pickers, one trade is 2x contrarian, which almost makes it a mainstream trade.

If contrarian investing came with a label, it might as well be ‘no guts, no glory.’ It takes guts to bet against the crowd, but it can pay off big.

I use sophisticated software and crosscheck with basic media sentiment (headlines) to identify extreme sentiment delights for contrarians. Here are my top three choices:

Gold Anyone?

Gold prices have dropped almost $800 since September 2011, and according to many pros, gold will shed another $300 – $400. Here are a few recent doom and gloom headlines:

  • “A final purge to $700? What gold bulls surrender might look like” – Nov. 12
  • “Here’s why gold could be headed to $800” – Nov. 12
  • “Gold bulls beware: More pain coming” – Nov. 10

If gold is going to drop another few hundred bugs, why would anyone hold on to it? That’s the crux of contrarian investing. In the midst of extreme pessimism, there are not enough sellers left to drive prices much lower.

It appears that gold is at or near this point, often called the ‘puke point’. Gold ETFs like the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEArca: GLD) and iShares Silver Trust (NYSEArca: IAU) are likely to surprise many to the up side.

Fill up The Car Honey

According to the U.S. Energy Department, low gas prices aren’t going away anytime soon. I don’t recall the Energy Dept predicting a 30% drop a few months ago, but that’s what happened.

According to one ‘pro’ interviewed on CNBC, gas may drop to $30.

Catching a bottom in oil prices is a bit like catching the proverbial falling knife, but simply based on investor/media sentiment, this slippery, oily knife is closer to the kitchen floor (a bottom) than the hand that dropped it (top).

The United States Oil Fund (NYSEArca: USO) and Energy Select Sector SPDRs (NYSEArca: XLE) are two ways to play a bounce.

The Ultimate 2x Contrarian Trade?

Back in May I noticed, and reported on, the unusual amount of bearish media coverage. Russ Koesterich (chief investment strategist at BlackRock), Wilbur Ross (billionaire investor), Carl Icahn (billionaire investor), David Tepper, Marc Faber and Peter Schiff predicted a serious correction or outright market crash.

In the spirit of no guts, no glory, I wrote back then: “Here’s a message for everyone vying to be the next Roubini: A watched pot doesn’t boil and a watched bubble doesn’t burst.”

Some of the recent headlines make we wonder if we’re in for a May/June repeat:

  • “Sentiment is ‘off the charts’ bullish” – Nov. 12
  • “Don’t get suckered by stock market winning streak” – Nov. 12
  • “Marc ‘Dr Doom’ Faber: I will soon be proven right” – Nov. 13

Yes, sentiment polls show excess optimism, but can it still be considered a contrarian indicator if everyone reads about it? Will two negatives make a positive?

Another factor to keep in mind is that actual money flow indicators do not confirm sentiment polls. Investors don’t seem to be putting their money where their mouth is.

Therefore, owning stocks into next year may be more of a true contrarian move than selling stocks. Instead of owning broad market ETFs like the S&P 500 SPDRs (NYSEArca: SPY), I would probably opt for certain sector ETFs that offer more up side.

Simon Maierhofer is the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

Despite Selloff – Gold is Holding Support … For Now

Various media outlets listed many ‘convincing’ reasons to buy gold (a few examples of recent media blunders are listed in the article), but the gold market did exactly the opposite. Why did gold drop and where will it find support?

On June 8, Barron’s reported that the gold speculators are back and the Financial Times observed that gold bulls feel no need to hedge their gold position.

On June 11, MarketWatch ran an article titled: “Why mining stocks point to gains for gold prices”.

On June 14, gold prices (and gold ETFs) fell 45 points or 3.5%.

What happened?

Gold ran into a triple barrier.

That triple barrier is made up of:

  1. Technical resistance
  2. A seasonal weak spot
  3. Bullish sentiment extremes

The July 13 Profit Radar Report pointed out that: “Gold is making progress towards our up side target. We are considering a small short position.”

What was the up side target and how was it determined?

The up side target was 1,350, determined by combining technical analysis, seasonality and sentiment.

The June 1 Profit Radar Report published this price projection (chart below, yellow lines) and stated:

“On Friday gold slipped into our support zone at 1,255 – 1,230. Gold sentiment is quite bearish, so the immediate down side may be limited. The yellow projection shows one possible route to get to 1,350+/-.”

In terms of time, the projection was off by a couple of weeks, but gold reversed rather violently when it neared the outlined cluster of technical resistance levels around 1,350. Since prices did not completely touch the resistance cluster, there is still a chance of another bounce to ‘complete unfinished business.’

The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSEArca: GLD) chart below offers an updated look at the gold market, with some interesting technical nuggets (chart published on July 15 by iSPYETF.com).

  • GLD found support right at the June 19 gap up open. I’m showing the GLD chart, because this gap is not visible on the futures chart. Support held and gold (and GLD) should bounce as long as this support holds.
  • GLD is trading heavy, as trading volume during the selloff was elevated. This cautions of further weakness eventually. A close below 124.30 would likely trigger another step down.

Based on the actions of commerical traders, which includes actual gold miners and other insiders, gold may see more selling.

Here is what commercial traders are doing and why this may be concerning:

Smart Money is Leaving Gold Just as the ‘Herd’ is Jumping in

Simon Maierhofer is the publisher of the Profit Radar ReportThe Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

 

Gold Rally – New Bull Market or Bull Trap?

KISS – Keep it simple st …. Sometimes the easiest analysis really is the most effective and accurate analysis. Here’s a very simple way to test if gold’s rally is for real, almost like a litmus test.

Gold is up 12.6% since the beginning of the year and gold ETFs, like the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEArca: GLD) and iShares Gold Trust (NYSEArca: IAU), are back in vogue.

A 12.6% gain is pretty good, especially when considering that the S&P 500 (NYSEArca: SPY) is essentially flat over the same period of time.

Gold always polarizes. Some love gold (no matter what) and others hate gold (no matter what), but for those of us who just want to make money with gold, we simply ask:

Is this gold rally for real or just a bull trap?

We’ll take a look at two lines of evidence. One is anecdotal (and should put a smile on your face), but has proven indisputably correct. The other is based on technical analysis.

Anecdotal … surprisingly Accurate

The December 22, 2013 Profit Radar Report issued the following observation and forecast:

Gold sentiment is bearish enough to cause a sizeable bounce. Below are just some recent headlines:

Gold May be on the Verge of a Waterfall-Style Decline – Forbes
2014 Could be a Sequel for Gold and That’s Not Good – ETFtrends
Gold is Testing Last Ditch Support Before it Falls Further into the Abyss – WSJ
Gold’s Gimmer Gone, Mutual Funds Feel the Pinch – WSJ

We would likely buy on any move below 1,160 followed by a move back above.”

Unfortunately, gold didn’t quite dip enough to trigger our 1,160 buy trigger, but the excessive pessimism lifted gold prices as proposed.

Gold may have come full circle, as sentiment is now quite optimistic.

The March 16 Profit Radar Report read as follows:

“Perhaps there’s a new gold bull market unbeknownst to me, but generally the kind of optimism expressed by the headlines below is seen towards highs, not new bull markets.

“Ride the Gold Rally” – Barron’s
“Why Gold is Back in Vogue” – Yahoo Breakout
“Why Gold Appears Cheap and May Just be Entering a Bull Market” – MarketWatch
“How the Big Money is Betting on Gold Now” – CNBC
“Gold Losing Stigma for UBS, 2014 Forecast Increased” – Bloomberg

Sentiment doesn’t always work as an exact timing tool, but at this point it suggests that gold prices, the SPDR Gold Shares and iShares Gold Trust are closer to a high than a low.

Technical Analysis

In situations like this, the message of sentiment analysis can be greatly enhanced with the results of technical analysis.

Sentiment suggests that we may have to start looking for a top. Technical analysis will help us pinpoint where exactly (in terms of price) to look for a top.

A detailed short-term technical analysis for gold can be found here: Short-term Technical Analysis for Gold

Simon Maierhofer is the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

The Missing Tell-Tale Sign of a Lasting Gold Market Low

The best time to buy is when there’s ‘blood on the street’ or when investors throw in the towel and all the weak hands are purged out. How can you tell when that’s the case? Here’s possibly the only way to identify the ‘puke point’ for gold.

Based on the Commitment of Traders Report (COT) and gold assets held in gold ETFs like the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEArca: GLD) and iShares Gold Trust (NYSEArca: IAU), we know that investors/traders do not want to own gold right now.

In fact, both sentiment gauges have plunged to 5-year lows. Sentiment surrounding the precious yellow metal is bearish enough to spark a rally.

The big question is whether any rally will be fake and short or real and long.

At major market bottoms investors generally throw in the towel. Some call this the ‘puke point,’ where all the weak hands are purged out.

We’ve seen such a ‘puke point’ for the S&P 500 in March 2009 and once again in October 2011 (the Profit Radar Report identified both of them).

The opposite of the ‘puke point’ is the extreme infatuation seen around gold’s nominal all-time high in September 2011. Everyone wanted to own it. When everyone is scrambling to buy an asset from you, it’s best to give it to them.

Via the August 24, 2011 Profit Radar Report I warned subscribers that: “I don’t know how much higher gold will spike, but I’m pretty sure it will melt down faster than it’s melting up. We should see sellers en masse.”

Unlike the S&P 500, gold has been in a bull market for most of the 21st century. This means that data mining for past market bottoms is difficult, especially when looking at gold ETFs with price history limited to eight years.

Nevertheless, the chart below should be helpful in spotting a lasting gold bottom.

The chart plots the price of gold against gold (in tons) held by GLD and IAU.

The red graph at the bottom shows the 5-day average combined trading volume for GLD/IAU.

Gold assets have been in freefall mode. This shows us that gold may be oversold, but that’s about it.

The volume data is much more insightful. There’s been a volume spike at every prior gold low – the puke point. But there hasn’t been a volume spike recently.

The absence of obvious mass surrender suggests that a lasting gold bottom has yet to be seen. My most recent Profit Radar Report includes ideal targets for this major gold low along with short-term key resistance.

Simon Maierhofer is the publisher of the Profit Radar ReportThe Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (stocks, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. We are accountable for our work, because we track every recommendation (see track record below).

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

Gold ETF Assets Tumble To 5-Year Low, but Lack Tell-Tale Sign of Major Low

Two gold sentiment gauges have plunged to 5-year lows as investors can’t get out of gold ETFs fast enough. Extreme sentiment often sends prices higher, but the big tell-tale sign of a major low is still missing.

Is gold sentiment bearish enough for a sustainable snap back rally?

There are dozens of sentiment indicators related to broad stock market indexes like the S&P 500 (NYSEArca: SPY), but there are few for precious metals.

We looked at one of them – the Commitment of Traders Report – on December 6. Large speculators had dialed down their long futures exposure to the lowest level in five years (see chart and article here: COT Report: Large Speculators are Giving up on Gold).

Large speculators (whether it’s S&P 500 or gold) generally find themselves on the wrong side of the trade, so today’s gold bounce makes sense. But is it just a relief rally or the beginning of something big?

Here’s another, in the past reliable, sentiment gauge: Investors commitment to own gold ETFs like the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEArca: GLD) and iShares Gold Trust (NYSEArca: IAU).

According to data from State Street (SPDRs) and BlackRock (iShares), GLD and IAU held over 1,550 tons of gold earlier this year, an all-time high.

Since then however, investors have been rushing out of GLD and IAU as the combined total of gold held dropped to 1,004 tons.

Is there a correlation between GLD and IAU’s combined assets and gold price lows?

The chart below plots the price of gold against the combined total tons of gold held by GLD and IAU.

In times past, there’s been a high correlation between gold assets and gold price lows.

However, since early this year gold ETF assets have been declining without letup.

Almost every week/month has seen a new low.

Sure, when viewed in hindsight the actual gold asset low may mark a gold bottom, but unfortunately hindsight isn’t an investment strategy.

There hasn’t been a gold bear market in well over a decade. We don’t have any bear market gold ETF data, so at this point guessing how much more money investors will yank out of gold ETFs is tougher than identifying solid support for gold.

Based on the COT report and gold asset data, sentiment is bearish enough for a bounce, but we are still lacking the tell-tale sign of a lasting bottom.

This tell-tale sign accompanied all gold market lows since 2005 (see chart).

An enlarged chart and full explanation of this tell-tale sign is available here:

The Missing Tell Tale Sign of a Lasting Gold Market Low

Simon Maierhofer is the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (stocks, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. We are accountable for our work, because we track every recommendation (see track record below).

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.