Is Gold Rolling Over Again?

I published the chart with the two CNBC headlines in the January 19 Profit Radar Report. It just illustrates nicely how the change of price affects sentiment and vice versa. A risk trend followers hate and contrarian investors love.

We bought gold at 1,140 (as per the November 5 Profit Radar Report recommendation) when no one wanted to own it.

Now, it’s more fashionable to own the yellow metal again.

This alone is reason to be cautious, but it’s not the only one.

The gold seasonality chart below, featured in the January 25 Profit Radar Report, shows that seasonality soured around January 22.

Although it’s a couple of days old, the assessment published in the January 27 Profit Radar Report is still fully applicable.

The easy money in the gold trade has been made. More attention and mental stamina is required now. Sunday’s PRR showed seasonality is turning bearish. Commercial traders (‘smart money’) have further reduced exposure.

The chart shows that current trade is important from an Elliot Wave perspective. Gold appears to have completed a 3 wave rally. There are now two options:

Gold will trace out a wave 4 correction followed by wave 5 higher. Target for a wave 5 high is around 1,xxx (reserved for subscribers of the Profit Radar Report).

Longer-term, a complete 5-wave rally will be followed by a corrective decline and at least one more rally leg.

Shorter-term, a wave 4 correction could become a pain to manage. Waves 4 tend to seesaw over support/resistance levels, therefore using the trend channel support at 1,275 as stop loss could kick us out at the wrong time.

A 3-wave rally is indicative of a correction and would translate into a relapse to new lows. This option is unlikely, but theoretically possible.

We can either take our profits and run or commit to endure a potentially painful correction in exchange for further gains. I like to keep things simple and recommend taking profits. Lets cash in gold around 1,295 and GLD around 124.20 for a nice 13.5% gain.”

Gold has since dropped to 1,255. The SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEArca: GLD, iShares Gold Trust (NYSEArca: IAU) and Market Vectors Gold Minders ETF (NYSEArca: GDX) also peeled away from their recovery highs. I still think gold, GLD and IAU will see higher highs, but it will take some patience to get there.

Simon Maierhofer is the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013 and 17.59%.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

Is Now the Time to Buy Gold and Gold Miners?

Gold was the most hated asset class going into December, especially after Swiss voters rejected a proposal to boost the country’s gold reserves by some 1,500 tons (about 7% of global annual demand). Is this a good ‘blood in the streets’ trade?

Massive. That’s the only way to describe The December 1 overnight reversal of the gold futures (following the Swiss no vote).

In fact, price action painted two giant green candles. One marked the November 7 low, and than there was Sunday’s.

Two trading days before the November 7 low, the Profit Radar Report wrote: “There is a bullish divergence and gold has finally met our long-term down side target. Gold seasonality for November is bullish. Sentiment, seasonality and the bullish technical divergence increase the odds of an upcoming buying opportunity. We will dip our ‘toes in the water’ and buy gold if it dips below 1,130 and moves above 1,140.”

The Profit Radar Report identified the gold trade as one of the biggest opportunities around, and the gold rally was chugging along nicely, until the Swiss gold referendum came along.

Gold futures (chart shown) dropped more than 2% right after Sunday’s (November 30) rejection by Swiss voters. Sunday’s Profit Radar Report was published when futures were down more than 2%, trading near 1,145. It stated:

Swiss voters rejected proposals Sunday to boost gold reserves. Short-term, the Swiss gold proposal was a lose/lose proposition for gold buyers and an unnecessary cross current for our precious metals trade. As Wednesday’s PRR mentioned, soaring prices following a ‘yes’ vote were a forgone conclusion. When everyone expects a rally, the market usually doesn’t deliver one. A ‘no’ vote on the other hand would obviously be bearish.

A quick drop in gold prices was needed to shock the ‘bullish Swiss vote gold bugs.’  The question is how long of a drop? Initial (kneejerk) reactions following such newsworthy events are often wrong. Gold futures are down another 2% on Sunday.

In terms of technical analysis, the most likely interpretation of this decline is a retracement of the rally from the November 7 low. The chart shows various Fibonacci retracement levels (78.6% = 1,146.70). In terms of Elliott Wave Theory, this pullback looks like a wave 2 correction. The only requirement for a wave 2 is that it can’t exceed the prior extreme (November 7 low). In short, as long as the November 7 low remains unbroken, we are looking for higher gold prices.”

The corresponding entry level for the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSEArca: GLD) was at 111.08 on November 11.

Today, gold busted through red trend line resistance. This trend line can now be used as stop-loss.

What about Gold Miners?

Gold miners tend to respond faster and stronger to rising gold prices than bullion itself. In essence, gold miners are a leveraged play on gold prices.

Friday’s kneejerk reaction offered a low-risk entry for the MarketVectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDX).

Sometimes when a trend line is broken, prices will double back and test the line before peeling away in the direction of the break.

The Profit Radar Report suggested a buy limit order against the green trend line to scoop up GDX in case of a pullback. That’s exactly what happened November 28, courtesy of the kneejerk selloff prior to the Swiss vote.

The actual GDX chart does not look as bullish as the gold chart, but GDX is likely to dance to gold’s beat, not vice versa.

The precious metals trade (which includes silver) is likely just in its infancy and should offer a number of good entry points along the way.

Continuous low-risk, high probability trading opportunities and gold analysis is available via the Profit Radar Report.

Simon Maierhofer is the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.


Gold Seasonality Projected This Sell off – What’s Next on the Calendar?

Central banks are buying gold, China is buying gold … and gold prices continue to slide lower. This doesn’t make sense if you’re following fundamental research. Seasonality however projected the recent drop. What’s next based on seasonal patterns?

Like a knocked out boxer, gold prices just can’t ‘get off the mat,’ and smart money gold traders have been selling into every rally.

Weak gold prices persist despite a weak dollar and a strong S&P 500 (NYSEArca: SPY).

Apparently the smart money doesn’t care that China and almost every other central bank in the world is (allegedly) buying gold (this reasoning is flawed anyway, more below).

The best hope for bullish gold investors might be a return of seasonal strength.

Below is a very unique seasonality chart specially created for subscribers of the Profit Radar Report.

It is based on actual gold prices, but can be applied to gold ETFs like the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEArca: GLD), iShares Gold Trust (NYSEArca: IAU) and even the Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDX) and UltraShort Gold ProShares (NYSEArca: GLL).

The gold seasonality chart is created from averaging together 33 years of gold behavior.  But since gold is at a different price level every year, using just the average gold price would inappropriately skew the result by overweighting the years when it was at a higher level and vice versa.

To equally weigh every year, the price history is adjusted (using a divisor) to begin at the same level on the first trading day of every year.  Then each day’s values for the rest of the year reflect the percentage change from that first day of the year.

This chart was originally featured in the September 16 Profit Radar Report and projected a seasonal drop starting on October 10.

Seasonality and particular technical analysis are much better forecasting tools than fundamentals. It’s now obvious: The fundamental reasoning that gold prices must go up because central banks and China are buying doesn’t work.

The Profit Radar Report looks at technical analysis, seasonality and sentiment to identify low-risk buy/sell signals. We sold our gold position (established near the low) at 1,420 on August 27). Wednesday’s Profit Radar Report identified the must hold support level, that once broken should lead to much lower prices.

Here is why this reasoning is flawed: Why The Notion of a Demand Driven Gold Rush is Flawed

Simon Maierhofer is the publisher of the Profit Radar Report.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF

By One Measure, Gold Miners (GDX) Are as Cheap as Ever

Gold mining is a labor and capital-intensive business. But there are times when investors can make money even in the gold mining sector. That’s either when gold prices soar or when blood is on the streets. Was the June low ‘bloody’ enough to buy gold mining stocks?

Gold mining is a tough business. It is capital intensive to wrestle the yellow metal from the ground. Once mined, gold – the most valuable asset on the company’s balance sheet – is sold.

Sometimes miners are forced to sell their gold for less than it costs to mine. The miners’ fate often depends on the price of gold.

For the novice investor, the price of gold has become unpredictable. During QE1 and QE2, gold (NYSEArca: IAU) and silver (NYSEArca: SLV) soared because investors were afraid of inflation.

During QE3 and QE4 investors were still afraid of inflation, but gold and silver tanked. Same circumstances, different outcome. Go figure. Instead the S&P 500 (SNP: ^GSPC) soared.

Most of the time the gold mining sector is not the best place if you’re looking for return of capital.

But, if you can catch a major bottom (or a gold bull market), even the gold mining sector can pay off big time.

The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDX) is up 36% since its June low. Is the suffering over for the bruised mining sector?

This will largely depend on the price of gold (more below), but first let’s take a look at one unique indicator.

The chart below plots the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEArca: GLD) against the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) and the GDX:GLD ratio.

The GDX:GLD ratio basically measures the price of gold stocks compared to the price of gold. When the ratio is high, miners are expensive relative to gold. When the ratio is low, miners are cheap relative to gold.

As per this measure, gold miners are cheap now and were ‘major bottom worthy’ cheap a couple of months ago.

If you go back further – until 1996, comparing the Gold Bugs Index (NYSEArca: ^HUI) with the price of gold – you will find a lower ratio in 2001, which was when HUI bottomed.

So this particular indicator suggests that a major low for gold miners is in. But what about gold prices, the lifeblood of every mining operation? The article Is The Gold Rally Real or ‘Fool’s Gold?’ takes a detailed look at gold prices.

Simon Maierhofer is the publisher of the Profit Radar Report.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF


Is There a Bullish Breakout for the Gold Miners ETF – GDX?

Gold mining stocks and the gold mining sector as a whole have been in free fall mode since September 2012. The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is still trading 55% below its peak, but it is showing signs of life. Is this a bullish break out?

The March 6, iSPYETF article on ‘Gold vs GDX’ mercilessly ousted the fundamental profit making flaws of the gold mining sector.

To say that gold mining stocks have had a hard time monetizing their mining activity in an environment of falling gold prices is like claiming hurricane Sandy was just a stiff breeze.

The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) lost 60.8% from top to bottom tick, but if there’s anything we’ve learned from QE is that what comes down likely goes back up.

Based solely on technical analysis, GDX just completed the first steps of a bullish breakout.

The May 20 low has three trademarks of a tradable bottom.

  • It sports a bullish RSI divergence where price dropped to a new low, but RSI did not.
  • Prices were able to close above the black parallel channel that confined much of the previous down trend.
  • Thursday’s pop canceled a bearish percentR low-risk entry. percentR (or Williams %R) is a momentum indicator. According to my personal methodology (which is correct about 60 – 70% of the time) the immediate down trend is now broken.

It obviously will take more confirmation for the fledgling breakout to ‘stick,’ but the above-mentioned bullish factors decrease the odds of being cut by trying to catch a falling knife.

A close above the first red resistance line at 31.27 will be further confirmation that a tradeable low is in while key support is located right around 27. Use illustrated support/resistance levels to spot low-risk entries.

Low-risk entries are not no-risk entries. But going long against support, or once resistance is broken (and then used as support and foundation for a stop-loss level), significantly limits your risk and lets you know exactly when you’re wrong.

Currently prices are 5%+ away from support or resistance. Using support at 27 as stop-loss, the risk (drop from 29.40 to 27) is 8.2%. It makes sense for prices to pull back or resistance to be taken out for a lower risk entry.

The Profit Radar Report specializes in pinpointing low-risk entries for the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, euro, dollar, gold, silver and 30-year Treasuries. There’s always an opportunity somewhere, and the Profit Radar Report helps you find it.