Crowd Psychology: Bears Needed to Get Burned

The Profit Radar Report monitors dozens of indicators to compile a broad-based and educated forecast. All those indicators fall into one of the following four categories:

  • Supply & Demand (Liquidity)
  • Technical Analysis
  • Investor Sentiment (Crowd Psychology)
  • Seasonalities, Cycles & Patterns

The September 2 Profit Radar Report included a detailed analysis of investor sentiment (called the Sentiment Picture). Based on sentiment, the September 4 Profit Radar Report stated that: “A fakeout breakout would burn a lot of premature bears, and may be just what is needed to clear the air for another leg lower.”

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Below is a reprint of the entire Sentiment Picture:

August Sentiment Picture (Published September 2, 2019)

The July Sentiment Picture (published August 3) concluded that: “Short-term sentiment gauges are nearing a point where a bounce becomes likely. We’ve seen many bounces turn into spirited rallies (and this may happen again), but longer-term bullishness allows for additional losses after any bounce.”

The S&P 500 found a low the next day, but bounces (thus far) lacked escape velocity and remained within a trading range.

The following longer-term sentiment polls went from bullish to bearish (bearish considering how close the S&P 500 is to its recent all-time high):

  • National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM)
  • Investors Intelligence (II)
  • American Association for Individual Investors (AAII)

The dash green arrows highlight when any of the above-mentioned polls showed similar readings over the past 56 months. Most of them occurred near a significant low.

Since inception of the AAII poll, sentiment (as measured by the AAII bull/bear ratio) was as bearish when the S&P 500 was within 5% of a 52-week high 9 other time (the only such instance in the 21st century was in April 2005). The worst return was 1 month later (S&P 500 down 44% of the time), the best return was 3, 6, and 12 month later (S&P 500 up every time).

According to Lipper, investors yanked more than $40 billion from equity funds over the past weeks (that’s 0.3% of total equity assets) and 2% over the past year. This is the biggest exodus out of stocks since 2016 and nearly as pronounced as in 2002. This is not a short-term timing tool, but strongly suggest that a deeper correction would be a buying opportunity.

The sentiment-based conclusion made last month (“longer-term bullishness allows for additional losses after any bounce”) has become less likely.

A change of character would have to occur for stocks to fall further despite a number of bearish (bearish relative to how close the S&P 500 is to its all-time high) sentiment gauges.

Short-term sentiment indicators are neutral.

Continued updates, projections, buy/sell recommendations are available via the Profit Radar Report.

Simon Maierhofer is the founder of iSPYETF and the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. Barron’s rated iSPYETF as a “trader with a good track record” (click here for Barron’s evaluation of the Profit Radar Report). The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013, 17.59% in 2014, 24.52% in 2015, 52.26% in 2016, and 23.39% in 2017.

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Some Investor Sentiment Gauges Reach Panic Levels

For the fourth time since October 2014, the S&P 500 is testing the mid-1,800s.

That’s right about where investors threw in the towel before, and with regret watched the S&P move higher.

Will it be the same this time around?

The chart below plots the S&P 500 against the CBOE Equity put/call ratio, the percentage of bullish advisors and newsletter-writing colleagues polled by Investors Intelligence (II), and the percentage of bullish retail investors (polled by the American Association for Individual Investors – AAII).

As a composite, those three groups are about as bearish as they were near prior S&P lows. In fact, the CBOE Equity put/call ratio soared to a multi-year high on Friday, and the percentage of bullish investors is at a 10-year low.

Investor sentiment suggests that stocks are ripe for a rally, but this would be the fourth time the S&P is following the same script (bounce in the 1,800s). Is it time for a curveball?

The January 19 Profit Radar Report warned that a break below support at 1,870 would result in a quick drop to 1,820 and provided a long-term perspective on the S&P 500 (has a major market top been struck or not?) along with a short-term forecast.

Simon Maierhofer is the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013 and 17.59% in 2014.

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Detailed Investor Sentiment Comparison Between 2007 and 2015

Once a month, the Profit Radar Report publishes a detailed analysis of investor sentiment (called Sentiment Picture).

The October 2015 Sentiment Picture tackled the question whether current investor sentiment is indicative of a major market top.

To find out, the Sentiment Picture provided a side-by-side comparison of investor sentiment at and leading up to the 2007 top with current sentiment.

Before we get to the 2007/2015 comparison, allow me to fine tune expectations. There are things sentiment analysis can and cannot do.

Sentiment analysis (like any single indicator) is not infallible and shouldn’t be used as stand alone indicator. The Profit Radar Report always looks at the combined message of supply/demand, technical analysis, seasonality and sentiment.

Sentiment, however can help gauge the probability of a major top or bottom. To illustrate, the July 24 Sentiment Picture attempted to answer the same question: Are there enough bulls to form a major market top?

It stated that: “Considering that stocks just were near all-time highs, sentiment is quite subdued. The lack of real investor enthusiasm, has continually pointed to new highs, and does so again this month. The question is when a bigger correction will occur.”

The ‘bigger correction’ started shortly thereafter, but stocks are trading near their 2015 highs once again.

The September 24 Sentiment Picture noted extreme bearishness and proposed that: “Sentiment is pointing towards a buying opportunity. In fact, purely based on overall sentiment, stocks should be closing in on a tradable low.”

That tradable low occurred three days later at S&P 1,871.

Are There Enough Bulls for a Major Market Top?

Below is the sentiment chart featured in the October 29, 2015 Sentiment Picture. This chart plots the S&P 500 against six different sentiment gauges (the actual sentiment analysis includes dozens more indicators):

  • CBOE SKEW Index
  • CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio
  • CBOE VIX
  • National Association of Active Money Managers (NAAIM) equity exposure
  • Percentage of bullish advisors polled by Investors Intelligence (II)
  • Percentage of bullish retail investors polled by the American Association for Individual Investors (AAII)

The second chart highlights investor sentiment surrounding the 2007 high.

  • In 2007, the VIX was trading near 16. This was 50% lower than the August high (near 30), but 60% above the 2007 low (near 10).
  • The CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio (5-day SMA) was towards the lower end of its range.
  • The SKEW wasn’t extremely high, but towards the upper end of its range.
  • Investment advisors and newsletter writers (polled by Investors Intelligence – II) were extremely bullish.
  • Retail investors (polled by the American Association for Individual Investors – AAII) were extremely bullish.
  • Active investment managers (polled by the National Association of Active Investment Managers – NAAIM) were bullish.

In October 2015, investors are not as bullish as they were in 2007. This becomes particularly obvious when looking at the AAII, II and NAAIM crowd.

Since the October sentiment picture was published, investors have become a bit more bullish. Perhaps even bullish enough for another pullback (there was also some significant internal weakness last week), but investor enthusiasm as not as pronounced as it was in 2007 or other historic market tops.

Investor sentiment is just one of the four powerful price movers monitored by the Profit Radar Report. Here is a (free) detailed look at supply and demand (or liquidity): Is the Stock Market Running out of Willing Buyers?

Simon Maierhofer is the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013 and 17.59% in 2014.

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Investment ‘Pros’ are Bullishly Bearish

Investment advisors and newsletter-writing colleagues are as bearish right now as they were in March 2009, when the S&P briefly struck 666.

Yes, a quick 12% drop in 2015 caused the same fear as the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression.

Ok, perhaps (even probably) that’s an exaggeration, but the investment pros (polled by Investors Intelligence) show the same fear now as they did at the end of the financial crisis. No matter how you slice it, that’s pretty remarkable.

The chart below, which plots the S&P 500 against the percentage of bullish investment advisors, offers a glimpse into advisors’ collective mind. 3 out of 4 advisors recommend staying away from stocks.

The dashed green lines mark similar investor sentiment extremes, which were not long-term bearish for stocks.

The only potential exception was a somewhat similar reading in July 2008 (dashed red line). But even this one sparked a notable rally before the bottom fell out.

Does this mean stocks can’t go any lower? By no means. But a drop below or test of the August 2015 panic lows may be a trap for bears.

That’s at least what this S&P 500 template (which also predicted the sharp August selloff) implies.

Simon Maierhofer is the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013 and 17.59% in 2014.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

2011 vs 2015 – Sentiment Comparison

Over the past two weeks we explored two developments:

  1. Stocks had to rally to flush out premature bears
  2. 2015 is looking a lot like 2011

A couple of sentiment indicators (such as AAII poll) showed extreme pessimism recently.

2011 saw an 18% drop starting in July.

The question for right now is this: Is there too much pessimism for a summer correction?

The first chart shows sentiment in 2011. The gray bar highlights June 2011.

By mid-June, investors polled by the American Association for Individual Investors (AAII) and Investors Intelligence (II) had become quite pessimistic. Only 24% and 37% of investors were bullish.

A 7.8% S&P 500 (NYSEArca: SPY) rally from June 16 – July 7 relieved much of that pessimism, but it didn’t take a spike into extreme optimism for stocks to plunge in July.

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A look at current sentiment shows a similar scenario.

Optimism was quite low (extremely low for the AAII survey), but recovered, no doubt due to the 58-point rally from the June 15 low.

Based on the 2011 analogy, stocks may rally into early July. An updated look at the 2011 vs 2015 analogy is available here: 2015 is Looking a Lot Like 2011

Simon Maierhofer is the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013 and 17.59% in 2014.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

 

Can We Still Trust the Investors Intelligence Sentiment Poll?

Doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting a different outcome is often considered insanity.

By that definition, some analysts are legitimately insane. Why?

Because they’ve doomed the stock market based on bullish investor sentiment, and have been doing so for many months, even years.

You will see what I mean upon further inspection of the chart below.

Since late 2013, the Investors Intelligence (II) survey of advisors and newsletter writers has shown (extreme) bullish sentiment.

Illustrated via the chart is the percentage of bearish advisors. This percentage has been around 14 since late 2013, which happens to be the lowest since 1987.

And since late 2013 (and way before that), Elliott Wave International (one of many market forecasting services that’s been spreading doom and gloom) has been warning that a 2008-like meltdown is directly ahead.

The cold fact is that the S&P 500 has tagged on another 20%+ since 2013.

This is not the data’s fault. It’s the interpreter’s fault … and an unfortunate symptom of tunnel vision. Perhaps the II poll has just become too popular to be effective as contrarian indicator, and lost its mojo.

II is not the only sentiment data available, and it’s the analyst’s responsibility to determine the validity of the II survey in context with other sentiment data. Now more than ever, it’s important to widen the horizon and look at other sentiment gauges.

The Profit Radar Report monitors dozens of sentiment indicators and consistently publishes at least six every month.

For example, the February 19 Profit Radar Report Sentiment Picture summed things up as follows: “In short, sentiment is elevated, and may be a short-term drag, but is not indicative of a major market top.”

Throughout 2013 and 2014, the Profit Radar Report pointed out the lack of excessive optimism and likelihood of higher stock price (click here for a more complete record or the 2014 sentiment analysis).

Here is a look at the latest Sentiment Picture, published on May 29.

The two charts categorize various sentiment gauges as either opinion poll (what investors say) or money flow (what investors do).

The American Association for Individual Investors (AAII) and National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) opinion surveys do not confirm the bullish (bearish for stocks) tone of the Investors Intelligence poll.

Three other sentiment gauges more closely related to actual money flow do not show any real extremes.

What’s the moral of the story?

Don’t trust fear mongers or ‘one trick pony’ predictions based on any single sentiment gauge.

We live in a complex world. We need complex analysis.

Oh, on by the way, purely based on sentiment, stocks could continue to grind higher.

Simon Maierhofer is the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013 and 17.59% in 2014.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

 

This Eerily Accurate Indicator is the Best at Being the Worst

Two positives makes a negative and too much success is the worst thing that can happen to a contrarian indicator. This particular ‘indicator’ is so accurate, because the underlying opinions are ‘the best at being the worst.’

  • “This chart says we’re in for a 20% correction”
  • “An overdue stock market selloff is looming”
  • “Stocks are telling you a bear market is coming”
  • “This chart shows why the market is in trouble”

Before you call me a fear monger, allow me to clarify that those headlines are from May 2014.

As it turns out, whatever stocks or charts were ‘telling’ us, wasn’t the truth. It probably wasn’t as much of a stock market lie, than the media getting the signals wrong. There was no bear market, no 20% correction and no real ‘trouble.’

Here are more recent headlines:

  • “Buyer beware? Investor sentiment at highest level of 2014”
  • “Why the stock market is weaker than it looks”
  • “Are you prepared if the market tanks in Q4?”
  • “Don’t get suckered by stock market winning streak”

Purely based on the second set of headlines, I wrote in the November 5 Profit Radar Report:

Media attention on bullish sentiment could be a contrarian contrarian  (two negatives make a positive) indicator and actually be net positive. Investment advisors and newsletter-writing colleagues (polled by Investors Intelligence) are embracing this rally. The percentage of bulls has soared from 35.3% on October 21 to 54.60%. This is the largest jump in nearly 40 years. Perhaps surprisingly, this is not as contrarian a signal as it appears. Furthermore, advisor optimism is somewhat neutralized by media pessimism and headlines such as: “This stock market rally is for suckers” – MarketWatch and “Don’t buy into stock market craziness” – CNBC. Media bearishness is not as extreme as it was in May/June, but it may be significant enough to continue propelling stocks higher.”

Too much success is the worst thing that can happen to a contrarian indicator (such as investor sentiment).

A contrarian indicator with mainstream appeal loses its effectiveness, just like a rare commodity that’s suddenly available in abundance (imagine what would happen to gold prices if everyone suddenly found a couple pounds of the yellow metal in their backyard).

The Profit Radar Report not only monitors dozens of sentiment indicators, it also gauges media exposure of any specific indicator and media sentiment in general.

Fortunately, media sentiment has been one of the most accurate indicators of the year. This indicator remains so right, because cover stories tend to be so wrong.

Simon Maierhofer is the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

The Little Bullish Indicator Nobody is Reporting On

Tunnel vision is a luxury investors can’t afford. Yet, bullish signals from a well-known investor survey have been ignored for too long. Angry messages on comment boards also confirm a bullish message that shouldn’t be ignored.

Allow me to point out a bullish indicator that’s being flat out ignored by the media and investors: Investor sentiment.

Civil Surveys

The chart below plots the percentage of bullish investors surveyed by the American Association for Individual Investors (AAII) against the S&P 500.

The percentage of bullish investors dropped to 29.60, one of the lowest readings of the year.

This isn’t a historical extreme, but it’s noteworthy considering that the S&P 500 is yet at another all-time high.

The dashed lines show what happened the last several times investors felt as gloomy as this week. Eight out of nine times the S&P 500 rallied.

The Profit Radar Report has been monitoring the AAII poll and observed back on May 14 that: “The percentage of AAII bears is down to 28.34% and various media outlets have boldly gone on record predicting a crash or severe correction. Today the put/call ratio is at 0.72, a level that’s indicative of a low more than a top.”

What makes the AAII crowd pessimism unique is how it contradicts other, more bullish sentiment polls.

The bottom graph on the chart shows the difference between AAII bulls and bullish advisors surveyed by Investors Intelligence (II). 56.5% of advisors are currently bullish.

The spread between AAII and II bulls is one of the largest and most persistent in the history of the two surveys.

Angry Response

In yesterday’s article “The Long-Awaited S&P 500 Correction Already Happened” I dared to suggest that the expected S&P 500 correction already happened.

The passionate responses on Yahoo’s comment board confirmed the AAII poll. Here are a few:

“The big one hasn’t hit yet”

“Wow they baked a correction hidden in an up turn and we are suppose to buy it. Soon you will see what the real thing is and then look at this article.”

“What a load of nonsense”

Conclusion

Every investor should always look at all the facts. Fact is, bearish sentiment is too pronounced to ignore.

A correction, which is overdue and would be healthy, may come any day, but data points like this caution that it may not happen yet.

Bottom line, as long as support holds, the trend is up. The July 8 Profit Radar Report identified key support, which has been tested five times since (and held everytime).

This key support, and why it is important, is revealed here:

S&P 500 Forecast: Key Support

Simon Maierhofer is the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

Major Investor Sentiment Divergence Confuses S&P 500

More than ever before, investors are looking at various sentiment gauges to get a pulse on the market. After all, excessive optimism correctly foreshadowed every recent crash or correction. But, there’s a big sentiment divergence right now.

The 2000 and 2007 market crashes, and even the 2010 and 2011 corrections were preceded by excessive investor optimism.

Well, once bitten, twice shy. Investors are trying their darndest not to make the same mistake again. Nobody wants to get left holding the bag … again.

That’s why investor sentiment indicators are more closely monitored and written up today than at any other time (at least it feels that way).

How optimistic or pessimistic are investors right now?

Frankly, it depends on who you ask.

If you ask investment advisors and newsletter writers (as Investors Intelligence – II – does every week), you’ll get bullish forecasts from 60.2%.

If you ask retail investors (as the American Association for Individual Investors – AAII – does every week), you find that only 37.20% of ‘average Joe’ investors are bullish.

This is unusual. How unusual?

The chart below plots the S&P 500 against the percentage of bullish advisors (II), the percentage of bullish investors (AAII) and the difference between the two (II – AAII).

We saw a similar discrepancy between retail investors and advisors in April 2014, but the current spell of differing opinions is the longest stretch since at least the 2007 market top.

Prior instances since 2012 led to smaller pullbacks followed by continued gains.

However, the sample size is too small to draw any high probability conclusions.

Here are two additional factors worth considering:

  1. Overall investor sentiment (a composite of six different sentiment indicators) is at or near a bullish extreme (today’s Sentiment Picture – published by the Profit Radar Report – contains a detailed look at six different sentiment gauges).
  2. The S&P 500 is struggling to move above major resistance around 1,955. In fact, this resistance is so significant that the 2014 S&P 500 Forecast (published by the Profit Radar Report) projected a May/June high at 1,955 on January 15, 2014.

We have yet to see sustained trade above 1,955. Obviously, the market considers this resistance cluster important.

What are the odds of the S&P 500 reversing here? Could this be a major market top?

More details are available here: Updated 2014 S&P 500 Forecast

Simon Maierhofer is the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

Two Sentiment Gauges Reach Multi-Year Bullish Extremes

It’s been a while since we’ve seen bullish sentiment conditions, but this week’s rally pushed two sentiment gauges to multi-year extremes. But, there is reason to view the two extremes in context with the larger sentiment picture.

We looked at various sentiment measures in April and May, and the common denominator was that investors were unusually bearish.

As happens so often, bearish sentiment turned into bullish price action (for an insightful read on foolishly bearish forecasts click here: Hey Bears! Where is the Promised Crash or Correction?).

Thanks to the cycle of sentiment mean reversion, rising prices (since late May) lifted bullish sentiment. In fact, two sentiment measures reached multi-year extremes this week.

One particular gauge that foreshadowed a stock market rally back in May was the CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio.

The May 14 and 18 Profit Radar Report featured this chart of the equity put/call ratio and stated: “Prior corrections were preceded by a put/call ratio around 0.5 or below. Today the put/call ratio is at 0.72, a level that’s indicative of a low more than a top. The equity put/call ratio cautions of further up side.”

The second chart updates the equity put/call ratio and plots it against the S&P 500. On Wednesday the equity put/call ratio dropped to 0.43, the lowest reading sine January 2011.

In addition, the percentage of bullish investment advisors polled by Investors Intelligence rose to 62.2%, the second highest level in the survey’s history.

Readings above 60% generally result in a rally pause or correction. However, the survey’s all-time high water mark (62.9%) occurred in December 2004 and didn’t cause too much trouble.

The equity put/call ratio is more worrisome as it indicates very limited hedging activity. This means many investors are long and naked (long without put protection). If the S&P 500 starts falling, they have to sell their core holding.

I always look at more than just two sentiment gauges. A broadening of the sentiment scope reveals that other gauges are still in neutral territory (retail sentiment, CBOE SKEW Index, etc.).

Once a month, the Profit Radar Report publishes a comprehensive sentiment picture that plots six sentiment gauges against the S&P 500. The May 23 Sentiment Picture proposed that: “The market will grind or spike higher (whichever is necessary to turn more investors into bulls) before delivering a noteworthy correction.”

Clearly the S&P 500 (NYSEArca: SPY) has succeeded in turning many more investors into bulls. Whether it’s been enough to cause a correction remains to be seen, but risk is rising.

What about stock market valuation? Are stocks too expensive and ready for a mean reversion?

Here is an objective look at four different valuation metrics and what they mean for the stock market.

Is the S&P 500 Overvalued?

Simon Maierhofer is the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.