Since the presidential election (November, 2016), the S&P 500 enjoyed three distinctive ‘growth spurts’ (chart below, green arrows).
The first one ended on December 12, 2016, the second one ended on March 1. What about the third one?
End of Growth Spurt?
The December 14, 2016 PRR and the March 5, 2017 Profit Radar Reports stated that: “Stocks rarely ever top at peak momentum. Any pullback should be temporary in nature. The question is how temporary.”
Barron’s rates iSPYETF as “trader with a good track record” and Investor’s Bussines Daily says “When Simon says, the market listens.”
The December 14 and March 5 peak momentum highs were followed by sideways corrections and eventually new highs.
The latest all-time high (July 27), however, did not occur on peak momentum. RSI-35 (momentum indicator) is now obviously lagging. The reverse conclusion is that risk of a top is higher today than it was in December and March.
However, our ‘secret sauce’ liquidity indicator (more details about ‘secret sauce’ is available here) is at new all-time highs.
Several times since the 2016 low, the Profit Radar Report stated that: “Our liquidity indicator is already at new all-time highs, it’s just a matter of time until the S&P 500 will follow.”
Short-term vs Long-term
In general, RSI divergences tend to be more short-term (weeks) in nature, while ‘secret sauce’ is longer-term (months). This would translate into shorter-term risk, but longer-term gains.
Up Side Target
Now that the S&P 500 as good as reached our up side target, we are using (ascending) short-term trend lines/channels to help narrow down the final squiggles.
So far, the low end of our target was missed by one point. This may have been enough, but for now we are allowing for another stab higher.
Continued analysis along with up-and down side targets and trading recommendations are available via the Profit Radar Report.
Simon Maierhofer is the founder of iSPYETF and the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. Barron’s rated iSPYETF as a “trader with a good track record” (click here for Barron’s profile of the Profit Radar Report). The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013, 17.59% in 2014, and 24.52% in 2015.
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