S&P 500 – How Long Can the Party Last?

Subscribers to iSPYETF’s free e-mail newsletter receive a market outlook, usually once a week. The market outlook below was sent out on November 18, 2021. If you’d like to sign up for the free e-newsletter, you may do so here (we will never share your e-mail with anyone, just as we don’t accept advertising).

The markets are moving in line with our forecasts (we’ve been long IWM, DBA, silver, gold), but how long will the party last?

To address this question, we’re revisiting some remarkable studies conducted earlier this year.

You’ve probably seen charts like this before. This one in particular was from January, when a determined bundle of analysts claimed that the Buffett Indicator is way over-valued and stocks are doomed to fail (like they did in 2000, red arrows).

The above chart was published in January in the 2021 S&P 500 Forecast, but to put things into perspective and oust false reasoning, it came with the chart below.

The added red and green graphs show that interest rates have never been lower and liquidity has never been higher. This means that – unlike in 2000 and other times when stocks were deemed over-valued – there is a ton of money slushing around without any high-interest alternatives to stocks.

The conclusion at the time was that: “Valuations (when considered in the big picture context) do not preclude further gains, a meltup or manic phase.”

We haven’t spent much time looking at Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) simply because it hasn’t worked. Nevertheless, every full-year S&P 500 Forecast includes the most likely EWT scenario. Here is the #1 scenario published back in January.

The S&P 500 has reached and exceeded the 4,500 target but the EWT wave count does not look complete yet.

Throughout 2021, we’ve had a number of studies that showed impeccable forward returns. Below is one published in the May 9, 2021 Profit Radar Report.

Back then, 16.58% of NYSE-trade stocks were at 52-week highs. After the 7 other times this happened, the S&P 500 was higher 9 and 12 months later every time (see performance tracker at bottom of chart).

This newsletter wouldn’t be complete without the most important factor to consider: Momentum.

The July 5 Profit Radar Report featured, what I dubbed, the monster momentum study. Copied below is a large chunk of the July 5 Profit Radar Report:

For the first 6 months of 2021, the S&P 500 gained 14.4%, set 36 new all-time highs, has not suffered a pullback of more than 5%, and closed higher for the months of February, March, April, May, June.

For the purpose of finding past precedents, we’ve identified dates that meet at least one of the following four criteria:

– Most persistent first half of the year rallies (gains, number of highs, lack of pullbacks)

– 5 consecutive up months to an all-time high

– Up April, May, June

– End of June gain of >14%

In total there were 45 signal dates. Some of the dates qualified for multiple categories so we ended up with a solid sample size of 35 unique signal dates since 1970.

The first chart provides a broad visual overview over the type of signals (categorized into 4 groups) and when they occurred. 

The second chart graphs the S&P 500 forward performance for the year following each signal date. The color of the forward performance graph correlates to the signal color used in the first chart.

Even though the graph looks busy it has an unmistakable message, one we’ve shared many times: Momentum does no die easily. Based on this comprehensive study the question is not whether to buy/hold but when to buy.

The Profit Radar Report conducts hundreds of studies like the ones above and builds a Risk/Reward Heat Map based on the attained forward returns. The Risk/Reward Heat Map is the most comprehensive, objective, data-based forecasting tool available.

Continued updates, out-of-the box analysis and forward performance based on historic precedents (Risk/Reward Heat Map) are available via the Profit Radar Report

The Profit Radar Report comes with a 30-day money back guarantee, but fair warning: 90% of users stay on beyond 30 days.

Barron’s rates iSPYETF a “trader with a good track record,” and Investor’s Business Daily writes “Simon says and the market is playing along.”

Bull Market Pros and Cons List


Subscribers to iSPYETF’s free e-mail newsletter receive a market outlook, usually once a week. The market outlook below was sent out on November 4, 2021. If you’d like to sign up for the free e-newsletter, you may do so here (we will never share your e-mail with anyone, just as we don’t accept advertising).

The last free Market Outlook (2 weeks ago) highlighted some of the nonsense coming from the perma and premature bear echo chamber. Here’s another look.

8/21/21 – Elliott Wave International: “The top is in.”

9/20/21 – Glenn Neely, NEoWave: “The bull market is over!”

9/20/21 – Fox Business: “Stocks could drop 20% or more.”

9/28/21 – Kitco: “Bear market is imminent.”

9/30/21 – Barron’s: “3 Reasons the stock market will keep falling.”

Because of all the bearishness at the time, I had put together a bear market pros and cons list for subscribers of the Profit Radar Report. It’s a few weeks old now, but certainly not outdated.

Unlike the strictly data-based Risk/Reward Heat Map (which projected temporary weakness for September/October) the pros/cons list was based on my personal assessment of some of the most important factors and indicators.

The October 24 Profit Radar Report included a detailed look at underlying breadth. In fact, it was so detailed (criteria listed in chart below) that it only returned 4 other similar signal dates. That’s obviously a small sample size, but none of the prior signal dates was bearish.

One of this week’s biggest stories is the small cap breakout. The Russell 2000 and Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) broke out of a 10-month trading range. My assumption was that this extended range is wave 4 to be followed by wave 5 up. I haven’t used Elliott Wave Theory much but the need for wave 5 to new highs seemed obvious, which is why I recommended buying IWM in late August.

Statistically, such breakouts (new high after 6 months without high) have 80% – 90% odds of higher prices 2 and 3 months later.

Continued updates, out-of-the box analysis and forward performance based on historic precedents are available via the Profit Radar Report

The Profit Radar Report comes with a 30-day money back guarantee, but fair warning: 90% of users stay on beyond 30 days.

Barron’s rates iSPYETF a “trader with a good track record,” and Investor’s Business Daily writes “Simon says and the market is playing along.”

New Bitcoin ETF, Eating Crow, S&P 500 Update


Subscribers to iSPYETF’s free e-mail newsletter receive a market outlook, usually once a week. The market outlook below was sent out on October 21, 2021. If you’d like to sign up for the free e-newsletter, you may do so here (we will never share your e-mail with anyone, just as we don’t accept advertising).

Stock market bears seem to enjoy sitting in their echo chamber shielding themselves from objective analysis. Below are just a couple of works produced by the bears’ echo chamber:

8/21/21 – Elliott Wave International: “The top is in.”

9/20/21 – Glenn Neely, NEoWave: “The bull market is over!”

9/20/21 – Fox Business: “Stocks could drop 20% or more.”

9/28/21 – Kitco: “Bear market is imminent.”

9/30/21 – Barron’s: “3 Reasons the stock market will keep falling.”

Bears are back to eating crow (for international readers, eating crow is an idiom for admitting to being wrong after taking a strong stand).

Although my Risk/Reward Heat Map projected weakness for September/October, the weight of evidence suggested only a limited pullback.

In fact, I quoted some of the above bear claims and stated in the September 23 Free Market Outlook that:

“While the risk was ‘on schedule,’ I didn’t – I couldn’t – call the bull market over or even presume further losses. Here are my 3 reasons for giving bulls the benefit of the doubt.”

You may review the 3 reasons and the Risk/Reward Heat Map here.

Another reason not to count out bulls was shared in the October 7, Free Market Outlook, which pointed out that market breadth did not confirm a breakdown (chart below).

It may sound like I’m plugging my own research (and I kinda am), but more importantly I’m plugging the truth. There’s never been a time with as much information and as little truth.

iSPYETF is a place where you will always find honest analysis.

The S&P 500 is butting against its prior ATH while over-bought (based on RSI-2). This is a place where I’d allow for some weakness (chance for bears) but the path of least resistance is up as long as the S&P doesn’t drop below 4,429.

ProShares launched the first Bitcoin ETF (BITO) on Monday, and it hit the $1 billion asset mark faster than any other ETF ever.

Below is the bullish Elliott Wave count published in the September 23 Profit Radar Report.

New trading vehicles for hot markets often put a damper on price (BITO is down 5.5% today). Does anyone remember what happened to bitcoin when Coinbase (a crypto currency exchange) launched? Hint, look at the top left of the chart below. I wrote about this in more detail here.

Continued updates, out-of-the box analysis and forward performance based on historic precedents are available via the Profit Radar Report.

The Profit Radar Report comes with a 30-day money back guarantee, but fair warning: 90% of users stay on beyond 30 days.

Barron’s rates iSPYETF a “trader with a good track record,” and Investor’s Business Daily writes “Simon says and the market is playing along.”

S&P 500 And Bitcoin Update


Subscribers to iSPYETF’s free e-mail newsletter receive a market outlook, usually once a week. The market outlook below was sent out on October 7, 2021. If you’d like to sign up for the free e-newsletter, you may do so here (we will never share your e-mail with anyone, just as we don’t accept advertising).

I shared the following chart in Sunday’s Profit Radar Report to show that most breadth measures (NY Composite advance/decline lines, new 52-week highs – lows) did not confirm a breakdown (see triangles).

Sunday’s conclusion – based on the above and other facts – was this:

Near-term resistance is around 4,380 – 4,400 followed by 4,440 +/- 10. We are allowing for the open chart gap at 4,436.19 to be filled, but a close above 4,450 – 4,470 would reduce the probabilities of a deeper down turn.”

As the chart below shows, the S&P is within striking distance of the open chart gap (dashed purple line) and now back above the bold trend line (which goes back to 2018) and the 18-day SMA. A close back above the 18-day SMA has ended the last 3 pullbacks.

If bears don’t step up soon, they’ll have fumbled another chance to take control at least for a little while.

On a slightly different note, over the past several weeks, the S&P 500 and VIX have delivered readings that also appeared prior to every major market top over the past 20 years.

Purely mathematically, the ‘meltdown risk’ came out to be 33.75%. A detailed explanation was published here, but, the risk comes with an important ‘but’ and unfortunately not all charts made it.

Bitcoin Futures soared from 41,000 to 56,000 over the past week. The Elliott Wave count first shown in the September 22 Profit Radar Report explains the surge.

Continued updates, out-of-the box analysis and forward performance based on historic precedents are available via the Profit Radar Report

The Profit Radar Report comes with a 30-day money back guarantee, but fair warning: 90% of users stay on beyond 30 days.

Barron’s rates iSPYETF a “trader with a good track record,” and Investor’s Business Daily writes “Simon says and the market is playing along.”

Gotcha! Stocks Did it Again

Subscribers to iSPYETF’s free e-mail newsletter receive a market outlook, usually once a week. The market outlook below was sent out on September 23. If you’d like to sign up for the free e-newsletter, you may do so here (we will never share your e-mail with anyone, just as we don’t accept advertising).

The Risk/Reward Heat Map (RRHM), featured in the September 6 Profit Radar Report (and re-posted below), showed an elevated risk level for September, and we saw the biggest pullback in over a year (5.28% peak to trough for the S&P 500).

Monday’s decline, the biggest one-day drop since May 12, moved a couple of big forecasting services to call this bull market ‘confirmed over.’

While the risk was ‘on schedule,’ I didn’t – I couldn’t – call the bull market over or even presume further losses. Here were my three reasons for giving bulls the benefit of the doubt:

– The S&P 500 still closed above key long-term support levels

– The decline unfolded in only 3 waves (wave 3 tagged Fibonacci target at 3,308).

– Stocks left a massive open chart gap

In Monday’s special Profit Radar Report update I stated the following:

The S&P 500 decline is best counted as 3 waves. There is a massive open chart gap at 4,427.78 which is highly likely to be closed. The S&P 500 closed above various support levels and is likely to bounce from here.”

The charts below show two long-term S&P 500 support or ‘ditch levels’ (as in: don’t ditch stocks until support is broken).

The next chart shows the 3-wave decline (this is the original chart published in Monday’s Profit Radar Report) and open chart gap (dashed purple line). Also notice that wave 3 tagged the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level (of wave a green line) at 3,308 and that RSI-2 was over-sold.

As of this morning, the gap has been closed and price already overlapped the wave a low (4,435.36), which means a straight-forward, bearish 5-wave decline is no longer possible.

According to Elliott Wave Theory, a 5-wave decline would have indicated a trend change from up to down, while a 3-wave decline is only a counter trend correction.

To be honest, on Monday I thought there’s at least a 50% chance the 3-wave decline in place at the time would tag on waves 4 and 5 and turn into a more bearish 5-wave decline.

A number of analysts projected just that and already called the bull market over, but such conviction without evidence is just wishful thinking. My analysis is certainly not perfect, but I don’t allow it to be clouded by personal expectations.

Based on Elliott Wave Theory, the decline is likely over unless it turns into a more rare and exotic pattern indicative of a trend change.

Simply based on resistance, stocks still could be rebuffed and I mentioned in Sunday’s Profit Radar Report that:

“Bearish September seasonality seems to have gotten a fair amount of media attention. The market may decide to bounce and flush out premature bears.” I suppose the bounce is accomplishing just that.

Continued updates, out-of-the box analysis and forward performance based on historic precedents are available via the Profit Radar Report.

S&P 500 Update


Subscribers to iSPYETF’s free e-mail newsletter receive a market outlook, usually once a week. The market outlook below was sent out on September 16. If you’d like to sign up for the free e-newsletter, you may do so here (we will never share your e-mail with anyone, just as we don’t accept advertising).

This is the S&P 500 Futures chart we’ve been looking at. The September 6, Profit Radar Report stated that: “Initial support is at 4,510 and a break below will increase short-term risk.”

The S&P has drifted lower since falling below 4,510 and, unlike all other pullbacks since April (blue boxes), the S&P has not bounced right back. Perhaps this means that the character of this rally has changed. Next support is in the low 4,400s. A sustained break below would further increase risk.

AAPL peeled away from double resistance, and the decline from last week’s high looks like 5 waves, which suggests 2 things:

1) a bounce (wave b or 2)

2) followed by a relapse and at least one more leg down (wave c or 3)

Last week’s Market Outlook mentioned that August highs tend to make investors cry (if you haven’t read it, the full article is available here). Here is another study that suggests to be cautious.

The chart below plots the S&P 500 (red graph, since 12/1/20) against the 10 most similar time periods. For this study we only focus on the average forward performance, which is illustrated by the bold black graph to the right of the dashed red line.

On average, the S&P has hit a rough spot right about now … and that rough spot can last several months.

The Risk/Reward Heat Map projected risk for September and we are starting to see some of that risk. To kick up the risk level further, the indexes need to stay below resistance for the next few days and start heading south again thereafter (which seems like a real possibility).

Continued updates, out-of-the box analysis and forward performance based on historic precedents are available via the Profit Radar Report

The Profit Radar Report comes with a 30-day money back guarantee, but fair warning: 90% of users stay on beyond 30 days.

Barron’s rates iSPYETF a “trader with a good track record,” and Investor’s Business Daily writes “Simon says and the market is playing along.”

S&P 500: August Highs Make Investors Cry


Subscribers to iSPYETF’s free e-mail newsletter receive a market outlook, usually once a week. The market outlook below was sent out on September 9. If you’d like to sign up for the free e-newsletter, you may do so here (we will never share your e-mail with anyone, just as we don’t accept advertising).

The S&P 500 finished August perched on an all-time high (ATH). In the past, August highs have often made investors cry.

Since 1970, the S&P carved out 12 other August ATHs (it set a 6-year high in 1979 and missed a new ATH by a few tics in 1984). All 14 signal dates (starting with the first day of September) are shown and highlighted below.

It’s tough to cram 50 years of history into one chart, but we can still see that August ATHs preceded some challenging times (i. e. 1972, 1987, 2000, 2014). Let’s drill a bit deeper.

The chart below shows the S&P 500 forward performance starting with the first day of September. The 5 instances since 2000 are shown in yellow, the 9 instances prior to 2000 are shown in gray. 2020 (in red) shattered all precedents with the exception of 1986.

As the performance tracker (bottom table) shows, returns for the next 1 – 3 months have been dismal.

The above study was just 1 of 3 studies published in Monday’s Profit Radar Report, which also featured the latest Risk/Reward Heat Map (a visual tool that shows risk based on 100s of studies).

Stocks have been immune to any kind of risk projection so we need price to verify risk with a drop below support.

Below are some basic levels to help judge risk and reward. The Nasdaq QQQ ETF is up against resistance. It will take a break above resistance to unlock higher prices (perhaps a blow off top).

DJIA is stuck in a potential wedge. A move above and back below upper wedge resistance would be a warning signal, as would be a good close below the lower wedge line.

Monday’s Profit Radar Report showed the below Bitcoin Futures chart and pointed out that price is against resistance while over-bought, which meant short-term risk was elevated. Within hours, Bitcoin dropped 10,000 points, nearly 20%. This general bias is likely positive as long black trend channel support holds.

Continued updates, out-of-the box analysis and forward performance based on historic precedents are available via the

Continued updates and factual out-of-the box analysis are available via the Profit Radar Report

The Profit Radar Report comes with a 30-day money back guarantee, but fair warning: 90% of users stay on beyond 30 days.

Barron’s rates iSPYETF a “trader with a good track record,” and Investor’s Business Daily writes “Simon says and the market is playing along.”

Inflation, Gold, S&P 500 Update


Subscribers to iSPYETF’s free e-mail newsletter receive a market outlook, usually once a week. The market outlook below was sent out on August 26. If you’d like to sign up for the free e-newsletter, you may do so here (we will never share your e-mail with anyone, just as we don’t accept advertising).

Stocks actually pulled back a bit last week, but last Wednesday’s Profit Radar Report showed the chart below (price has been updated) and stated the following (the chart was also included in last week’s Market Outlook):

On Monday, the S&P made it as high as 4,480.26 and has fallen below some minor support levels since. RSI-2 is now over-sold, which has marked the end of any pullback since May (dashed gray lines). Since the 4,485 target was not fully met, the market has still the option to reach and perhaps briefly exceed it.

While the bounce to tag our target around 4,485 was not unexpected, I was surprised to see such oomph behind that move.

On Friday, Monday, Tuesday (3 consecutive days), more than 68% of NYSE-traded stocks advanced and, more noteworthy, more than 75% of volume flowed into advancing stocks all 3 days.

The chart below highlights the 10 other days (since 2003) when the S&P 500 rallied into an all-time high, while a bearish NY Composite advance/decline divergence exists, with the 3-day SMA of up volume and advancers >77% and >70%. This has been bullish since the 2020 low, but a bit more mixed prior to that.

In my opinion, this mini breadth trust neutralizes some of the bearish divergences reported recently.

Nevertheless, my Risk/Reward Heat Map still projects risk for August/September, the up side target has been met, a small 5-wave rally may have concluded. At minimum a brief pullback is likely (such as today), but it still will take a break below support to dent the bull market.

Below is just a quick glance at some inflation metrics. What they mean for consumers and investors and how to hedge against inflation is discussed here: How Bad is Inflation?

The August 8 Profit Radar Report featured the gold chart above and stated that:

If gold reaches the green target box, the decline from the August high could be counted as 5 waves, which would clarify the longer-term picture and set up some better trading opportunities (i.e. buy in the target range).”

Within hours of that update, gold tumbled 5%, touched the upper end of the target box, and bounced back. It all happened overnight. The rally from the low appears to have traced out 5 waves, which suggests another (brief) pullback before a more sustainable advance.

Continued updates, out-of-the box analysis and forward performance based on historic precedents are available via the Profit Radar Report

The Profit Radar Report comes with a 30-day money back guarantee, but fair warning: 90% of users stay on beyond 30 days.

Barron’s rates iSPYETF a “trader with a good track record,” and Investor’s Business Daily writes “Simon says and the market is playing along.

How Bad is Inflation?


Inflation is on the rise and it’s a real concern for consumers and investors. To help readers assess and navigate the inflationary environment I am publishing excerpts of recent Profit Radar Reports below:

Barron’s rates iSPYETF a “trader with a good track record,” and Investor’s Business Daily writes “Simon says and the market is playing along.”

Excerpt from the August 22, 2021 Profit Radar Report:

The June 6, 2021 Profit Radar Report talked about inflation and stated the following: 

From a contrarian perspective, when a trend becomes too popular, it’s usually nearing its end. However, unlike any other class, inflation can turn into a movement and instead of reversing it could turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy. How so? If the fear of inflation becomes engrained enough for consumers to buy items today because they fear it will cost more tomorrow, the cost of goods will rise regardless or despite of supply and demand forces.

I don’t think we are there yet and we may see inflation stabilize for a while. Nevertheless, inflation will likely become more of an influence for our recommended trades. In times past, when cash was king, we were more content sitting out a trade knowing the purchasing power of cash will remain stable. Moving forward, more research will be devoted to identifying sectors and commodities more likely to prosper in an inflationary environment.”

Since the above assessment, the CPI’s 12-month rate of change (ROC) increased from 4.2% to 5.3% but Google searches from inflation dropped 43%. At this point it doesn’t seem like consumers’ fear of inflation is pronounced enough to turn it into a self-fulfilling movement.

Commodities in general, one of the better inflation hedges, haven’t moved any higher over the last couple months. 

DBC (Invesco Commodity ETF) dropped 8.7% from its high, but is at support while over-sold. 

DBA (Invesco Agriculture ETF) was unable to break higher, pulled back, and is also near support while almost over-sold.

This is a short-term inflection zone for DBC and DBA. We’d like to ultimately see a deeper pullback (possibly after a bounce).

Excerpt from the August 18, 2021 Profit Radar Report

EWZ (iShares MSCI Brazil ETF) failed to close the open chart gap (dashed purple line) at 42.09 by a few tics and has since dropped some 15% and sliced through the rising support trend line. By many measures (in addition to RSI-2), EWZ is oversold. 

About 25% of Brazilian stocks are in the materials sector, as such EWZ is a partial commodity play, and as mentioned in the June 6, 2021 Profit Radar Report, commodities are historically one of the best inflation hedges. Short-term, EWZ would have to move back above resistance or meet the next support around 34 for a lower risk entry.

Continuous updates are available via the Profit Radar Report.

Simon Maierhofer is the founder of iSPYETF and the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. Barron’s rated iSPYETF as a “trader with a good track record” (click here for Barron’s evaluation of the Profit Radar Report). The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. 

Follow Simon on Twitter @iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF e-Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

Stocks are Tired but Fighting


Subscribers to iSPYETF’s free e-mail newsletter receive a market outlook, usually once a week. The market outlook below was sent out on August 19, 2021. If you’d like to sign up for the free e-newsletter, you may do so here (we will never share your e-mail with anyone, just as we don’t accept advertising).

The stock market has coughed up some epic divergences and curious internals lately. First we’ll look at what we’re seeing and then at what it means.

– At the last 3 S&P 500 all-time highs (Aug. 12, 13, 16), less than 50% of NYSE-traded stocks advanced and less than 50% of trading volume went into advancing stocks. This happened 11 other times (since 2009).

– The cumulative NYSE advance/decline line has failed to confirm S&P highs since July 6. With 32 consecutive days, that’s the longest divergence since July 2014 (see chart below).

– There’s never been a bigger spread between Nasdaq-100 and Nasdaq Composite components trading above their 50-day SMA (in August, as high as 73% for the Nasdaq-100 and as low as 31% for the Nasdaq Composite).

– Yesterday, the VIX soared 20.44% even though the S&P dipped only 1.07%. This happened only 6 other times since 2009. 

Usually when there’s a big VIX spike knee-jerk reaction, it’s a positive for stocks (almost like a flush out the weak hands event). This time, the figures tell a different story.

The chart below shows every time the VIX spiked more than 20% on a day the S&P dipped less than 1.10% (there were 7 total signal dates). A quick glance reveals that 5 of 6 signals preceded some pretty rough markets.

Yesterday, the VIX soared 20.44% even though the S&P dipped only 1.07%. This happened only 6 other times since 2009.

The chart below shows S&P 500 forward performance after each signal date. Two things jump out:

– Forward returns were anemic.

– Odds of positive returns were only 50% for the first 6 months.

Those are dismal return figures considering that the signals occurred during one of the strongest bull markets in history.

Needless to say, there’s a lot of activity under the stock market hood and I’ve seen the media coming to misleading conclusions without checking the facts.

The Profit Radar Report always looks at the facts. Recent updates identify other times when similar conditions existed (i.e. 3 consecutive all-time highs with less than 50% participation, NYSE a/d line divergences lasting longer than 9 days, Nasdaq-100 vs Nasdaq Composite spread) and how the S&P 500 performed thereafter.

The stock market is unprecedented as it is, but there is no excuse for at least getting our facts straight and make fact-based decisions.

Short-term, as brought out in last night’s Profit Radar Report, the S&P 500 ended yesterday over-sold (dashed gray lines, chart above), which marked the last 3 pullback lows.

Failure to get above resistance (red lines) and progress to the down side would suggest this pullback has more bite than prior ones.

My Risk/Reward Heat Map (more info available here if you are not familiar) shows elevated risk for August/September.

Continued updates, out-of-the box analysis and forward performance based on historic precedents are available via the Profit Radar Report

The Profit Radar Report comes with a 30-day money back guarantee, but fair warning: 90% of users stay on beyond 30 days.

Barron’s rates iSPYETF a “trader with a good track record,” and Investor’s Business Daily writes “Simon says and the market is playing along.”