Dollar, Euro, Gold Update

Dollar Update

The January 2 Profit Radar Report published this chart and long-term US Dollar Index forecast:

The US Dollar Index could be at or near the end of a 5 ½ year rally. As per Elliott Wave Theory, it is possible to count 5 waves up from the May 2011 low. There are bearish divergences at the December highs, and investor sentiment is in favor of a lower dollar. We are alert for a potential multi-month US dollar decline.”

As it turns out, the US Dollar Index actually peaked on January 3, and spent the next 8 months falling lower.

In August/September we were expecting a bottom, but at the time we were not sure how big of a bounce to expect.

In November it became clear that the rally from the September 8 low to the October 27 high was only 3 waves, a first indication that the dollar bounce was over (a 5-wave move higher would have marked a trend change according to Elliott Wave Theory).

The chart below reflects the most likely Elliott Wave Theory count, which projects a more significant low in early 2018.

Smart money dollar hedgers are near record long the dollar, which could lead to a more sustainable rally even before the dollar reaches new lows (a solid close above 95 prior to a new low would suggest that the wave 5 low is already in).

However, hedgers are often early and may become even more bullish in the coming weeks. The lower the dollar falls, the better the buy signal.

Corresponding long dollar ETF: PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish Fund (UUP)

EUR/USD (Euro)

The euro (EUR/USD) generally moves in the opposite direction of the dollar.

Since the above dollar analysis provides a multi-month forecast, we’ll use the EUR/USD for a short-term outlook.

On November 14, the EUR/USD broke above the black trend channel, and re-tested that channel on November 21 (blue circle).

The November 20 Profit Radar Report said that: “The EUR/USD is near support around 1.17. This could serve as springboard for new recovery highs.”

We now expect a rally above 1.21. The gray trend channel provides some short-term support/resistance levels. Trade should not drop below 1.17.

RSI appears unlikely to confirm new highs above 1.21, which would harmonize nicely with our expectation of a larger pullback.

Smart money euro hedgers, however, are nearly record short the euro, which will draw the euro down eventually. We’d love an opportunity to short the euro above 1.21 against a bearish RSI divergence.

Corresponding inverse euro ETF: ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO)

Corresponding euro ETF: CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE)

Gold

This September 28 article included a detailed long-term outlook for gold.

The October 4 Profit Radar Report said all there was to know about gold for the weeks to come: “Support for gold is at 1,245 – 1,260. Resistance is at 1,298 – 1,304. For now, gold is likely to trade between support and resistance.”

Gold is pushing the upper boundary of the outlined trading range, but thus far there’s been no breakout. Silver failed to confirm gold’s push higher, which can be a warning signal. On balance volume has been increasing, which is a positive. Nevertheless, we would view a break above 1,307 with suspicion.

Corresponding gold ETFs:
SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)
iShares Gold Trust (IAU)

Corresponding inverse gold ETFs:
ProShares UltraShort Gold (GLL)

Continued forecasts for the US Dollar, EUR/USD, gold and silver are available via the Profit Radar Report.

Simon Maierhofer is the founder of iSPYETF and the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. Barron’s rated iSPYETF as a “trader with a good track record” (click here for Barron’s profile of the Profit Radar Report). The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013, 17.59% in 2014, and 24.52% in 2015.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

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Stock Market Update: This is the Clearest Chart Right Now

There’s never been a time when articles on iSPYETF.com have been posted at the snail-pace of about one per month … until now.

Unless you are a stock picker, there’s simply been nothing worthwhile to write about.

The October 1 Profit Radar Report warned of just such a period of inactivity:

The bullish Elliott Wave Theory count would see stocks grind higher for a number of weeks in a 2 steps forward, 1 step back pattern. A real unexciting, unstimulating and uninspiring grind higher to 2,600+/-. Unless the S&P drops below 2,500, this is now the most likely outcome.

Barron’s rates iSPYETF as “trader with a good track record” and Investor’s Bussines Daily says “When Simon says, the market listens.” Find out why Barron’s and IBD endorse Simon Maierhofer’s Profit Radar Report.

This ‘real unexciting, unstimulating and uninspiring grind higher to 2,600+/-‘ has already lasted more than 7 weeks.

The Clearest Chart Right Now

One of the best tell-tale since during this 7-week period came from the Russell 2000. The chart and commentary below were published in the November 15 Profit Radar Report:

The Russell 2000 is leaking lower. RSI-2 is now oversold with support around 1,452. The correction since the October 5 high looks like a wave 4. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (a common target for waves 4) is at 1,451.35 (just 3 points below today’s low). The R2K appears to be nearing a bounce, there’s even a possibility today’s low was a more sizeable low.”

Below is an updated Russell 2000 chart. Trade touched support around 1,450 on November 15, and rallied strongly. The minimum requirement for wave 5 is to reach new highs (which it already did), but the convergence of resistance levels around 1,542 (red oval) is the next most logical up side target (higher is also possible).

S&P 500 Update

The S&P 500 has basically reached our up side target around 2,600. The post-Thanksgiving week is seasonally weak, but as long as trade stays above 2,590, the S&P is likely to move towards the next resistance cluster around 2,650.

Continued analysis for the S&P 500, Russell 2000, gold, silver, euro, dollar and other equity indexes is provided via the Profit Radar Report.

Simon Maierhofer is the founder of iSPYETF and the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. Barron’s rated iSPYETF as a “trader with a good track record” (click here for Barron’s profile of the Profit Radar Report). The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013, 17.59% in 2014, and 24.52% in 2015.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

Gold Tug-of War: Mid-term Bullish vs Short-term Bearish

Gold has been zigzagging up and down for all of 2017. This erratic performance brings a measure of uncertainty, but – in a way – it also increases confidence in our long-term forecast.

Starting in November 2015, the Profit Radar Report expected a sizeable gold rally.

The November 30, 2015 Profit Radar Report published the chart below, which shows gold at quadruple support and record bullish smart money hedgers. An ideal setup for a rally (gold’s final low occurred on December 3, 2015 at 1,045).

The second chart shows the Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) labeling we’ve been following for the past years.

According to EWT, the first wave (comprised of five sub-waves) of the bear market ended in December 2015. The rally since is a counter trend move.

Barron’s rates iSPYETF as “trader with a good track record” and Investor’s Bussines Daily says “When Simon says, the market listens.”

Common Fibonacci target levels for this counter trend rally are 1,381, 1,485 and 1,588. Counter trends are generally more choppy and less predictable, which is true of the rally from December 2015 to September 2017 (this increases confidence in our forecast).

Since we were looking for a move above 1,382, the Profit Radar Report issued a buy signal for gold and gold ETFs like the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) in November 2015 (gold at 1,088), and in August 2017 (gold at 1282).

On September 8, 2017 gold became overbought and touched the top of the black trend channel. Smart money hedgers (which were record bullish at the December 2015 low) turned significantly more bearish (see daily chart).

For those reasons, the Profit Radar Report issued a sell signal on September 5, 2017.

We don’t have a down side target for the current pullback (yet), but the lack of a bearish RSI-divergence at the September 8 high and failure to reach or exceed Fibonacci resistance at 1,381 suggests gold will take another stab at new recovery highs.

The daily chart insert illustrates gold seasonality for the remainder of 2017.

The Profit Radar Report will continue to monitor technicals, Elliott Wave patterns, sentiment, seasonality and cycles to confirm (or invalidate) our preferred forecast and spot low-risk buy or sell entries.

Simon Maierhofer is the founder of iSPYETF and the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. Barron’s rated iSPYETF as a “trader with a good track record” (click here for Barron’s profile of the Profit Radar Report). The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013, 17.59% in 2014, and 24.52% in 2015.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

 

S&P 500 Update: Top or Not?

The last S&P 500 update outlined why 2,500+/- has been our up side target for over a year.

Our view has been that S&P 2,500+/- is not the target for a major top, but it should lead to a 5-10% correction.

The August 7 Profit Radar Report zoomed in on 2,495 as short-term target (based on the ascending red trend line) and stated:

The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closed at a new all-time high at the lowest volume of the year. The ideal scenario (and tempting setup to go short) would be a spike to 2,495+ followed by an intraday reversal.”

Barron’s rates iSPYETF as “trader with a good track record” and Investor’s Bussines Daily says “When Simon says, the market listens.

New Highs! Why?

On August 8, the S&P spiked to 2,490.87 and reversed lower. It initially looked like the 5-10% correction had started, but the August 13 Profit Radar Report warned that:

Odds for a bounce are high, and based on the wave structure, the likely up side target is 2,465 – 2,470. Purely based on the oversold condition however, the bounce could be stronger.”

The August 23 Profit Radar Report noted a bullish RSI divergence on the hourly chart, and stated:

Based on Elliott Wave Theory, this correction could even reach new all-time highs without violating any wave 4 guidelines. Whether this is the case remains to be seen, but it’s an option. Hourly RSI is fairly strong, therefore continued gains are easily possible.”

New Highs! Top or Not?

On Tuesday, the S&P surpassed the August 8 all-time high. In terms of Elliott Wave Theory, this high could be wave b of an ongoing wave 4 correction or wave 5 of wave 3, which would lead to the wave 4 correction (other options are possible, but those are the two most likely).

This article explains how and why Elliott Wave Theory has been such a valuable indicator.

The S&P 500 is nearing overbought, there is a bearish RSI divergence on the daily chart and seasonality is soon hitting a weak spot.

However, our reliable liquidity indicator (which has an incredible track record when it comes to sniffing out major tops) confirmed Tuesday’s new S&P highs.

Conclusion

The next inflection range spans from 2,500 – 2,540. Our working assumption is that the 5-10% correction will start then.

Our major market top indicators strongly suggests that the next correction will only be temporary and followed by new highs.

Continued analysis, with down side targets and buy/sell signals are provided via the Profit Radar Report.

Simon Maierhofer is the founder of iSPYETF and the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. Barron’s rated iSPYETF as a “trader with a good track record” (click here for Barron’s profile of the Profit Radar Report). The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013, 17.59% in 2014, and 24.52% in 2015.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

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S&P 500 Update: Is This Rally Leg Over?

The September 5, 2016 Profit Radar Report published the chart below along with the following commentary:

The chart below shows the long-term up side target purely based on projected symmetry. Based on the 1997 – 2013 trading range, the measured up side target is S&P 2,330 – 2,485, which is in the general vicinity of the 2,290 – 2,342 Fibonacci levels mentioned in the 2016 S&P 500 Forecast. Higher targets are possible, but we’ll reassess once we get there.”

Barron’s rates iSPYETF as “trader with a good track record” and Investor’s Bussines Daily says “When Simon says, the market listens.” Find out why Barron’s and IBD endorse Simon Maierhofer’s Profit Radar Report.

The second chart shows the trading activity over the past year along with short-term bars and trend lines we used to narrow down the up side target (the latest up side target was 2,494).

Short-term X-Ray

A special August 7 Profit Radar Report update featured this potent warning:

The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closed at a new all-time high at the lowest volume of the year. For the first time in a while, there is a bearish divergence between the S&P 500 and the NY Composite a/d lines. The ideal scenario (and tempting setup to go short) would be a spike to 2,495+ followed by an intraday reversal.”

This is almost exactly what happened. The S&P 500 spiked as high as 2,490.87 before falling 52 points.

However, this drop quickly caused an oversold condition.

A special August 10 Profit Radar Report update featured this chart and stated that:

The CBOE equity putt call ratio (last chart) spiked to the highest reading (0.88) since April. The VIX is overbought. The VIX/VXV ratio jumped and contango fell. Both are near levels that have been seen at VIX highs. Stocks are oversold and ready to bounce. Based on the wave structure, we anticipate this bounce to be brief (2-6 days) and stay below the prior all-time highs (although the extent of the oversold condition would allow for a stronger bounce).”

Conclusion

The August 28, 2016 Profit Radar Report featured a bullish Elliott Wave Theory count with a projected up side target around S&P 2,500 (more details here: S&P 500 Update – Expect the Abnormal).

One of the images featured was a conceptual “We are here” chart (shown below). The green dots mark where we were in August 2016 (along with probability scores).

The red circles highlight where we are at today. The upcoming correction should be a choppy and frustrating wave 4 decline to be followed by another rally to new all-time highs. It then remains to be seen whether that high will be a major top or not.

Since the S&P did not quite reach our up side target, there is an alternate interpretation, which allows for continued gains almost immediately. However, that remains only an alternate unless the market tells us otherwise.

Continued analysis, with down side targets and buy/sell signals are provided via the Profit Radar Report.

Simon Maierhofer is the founder of iSPYETF and the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. Barron’s rated iSPYETF as a “trader with a good track record” (click here for Barron’s profile of the Profit Radar Report). The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013, 17.59% in 2014, and 24.52% in 2015.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

 

Transports are Fueling Dow Theory Woes

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is at all-time highs, while the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT) just lost 6.6% and briefly dipped below its 200-day SMA.

The July 16 Profit Radar Report featured the follow DJT chart and commentary:

The Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT) just recently confirmed the new DJIA highs. According to Dow Theory, its good news when industrials (DJIA) and transports (DJT) fire on all cylinders (because goods produced by factories are moving off the shelves instead of accumulating as inventory).

However, the chart for DJT is looking dangerous. Fibonacci resistance (going back to 2002) is at 9,951, the center line of trend channel resistance is at 9,850, the rally since the May low is looking like a (eventually) bearish rising wedge, there is a glaring bearish RSI divergence, and it is possible to count a complete 5-wave move according to Elliott Wave Theory.

DJT 10,000 is about 2.5% away, and the odds of DJT running into serious trouble between now and 10,000 are highly elevated.

It is quite possible (even likely) that the DJT will start to head lower in the coming weeks/month while the DJIA will set a new high later on in 2017, setting up a bearish divergence between the DJIA and DJT.”

Barron’s rates iSPYETF as “trader with a good track record” and Investor’s Bussines Daily says “When Simon says, the market listens.” Find out why Barron’s and IBD endorse Simon Maierhofer’s Profit Radar Report.

Below is an updated version of the same chart.

The DJT is now at trend channel support (and the 200-day SMA). In addition, the decline appears to have unfolded in 5 waves. This means:

1) A bounce is next

2) The bounce will be followed by further losses

Fast-forwarding to late 2017 or early 2018, any new DJIA all-time highs are unlikely to be confirmed by DJT, setting up a bearish Dow Theory divergence.

The iShares Transportation Average ETF (IYT) is the only ETF linked to the DJT. There is no short DJT ETF. IYT put options are one of few ways to bet on a falling DJT (once this bounce is complete).

Continued stock market analysis along with up-and down side targets and trading recommendations are available via the Profit Radar Report.

Simon Maierhofer is the founder of iSPYETF and the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. Barron’s rated iSPYETF as a “trader with a good track record” (click here for Barron’s profile of the Profit Radar Report). The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013, 17.59% in 2014, and 24.52% in 2015.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

 

S&P 500 Update: End of Growth Spurt?

Since the presidential election (November, 2016), the S&P 500 enjoyed three distinctive ‘growth spurts’ (chart below, green arrows).

The first one ended on December 12, 2016, the second one ended on March 1. What about the third one?

End of Growth Spurt?

The December 14, 2016 PRR and the March 5, 2017 Profit Radar Reports stated that: “Stocks rarely ever top at peak momentum. Any pullback should be temporary in nature. The question is how temporary.”

Barron’s rates iSPYETF as “trader with a good track record” and Investor’s Bussines Daily says “When Simon says, the market listens.”

The December 14 and March 5 peak momentum highs were followed by sideways corrections and eventually new highs.

The latest all-time high (July 27), however, did not occur on peak momentum. RSI-35 (momentum indicator) is now obviously lagging. The reverse conclusion is that risk of a top is higher today than it was in December and March.

However, our ‘secret sauce’ liquidity indicator (more details about ‘secret sauce’ is available here) is at new all-time highs.

Several times since the 2016 low, the Profit Radar Report stated that: “Our liquidity indicator is already at new all-time highs, it’s just a matter of time until the S&P 500 will follow.”

Short-term vs Long-term

In general, RSI divergences tend to be more short-term (weeks) in nature, while ‘secret sauce’ is longer-term (months). This would translate into shorter-term risk, but longer-term gains.

Up Side Target

For the past year, the Profit Radar Report’s S&P 500 up side target has been around 2,500 (more details here), and a ‘melt up alert’ was issued in 2016.

Now that the S&P 500 as good as reached our up side target, we are using (ascending) short-term trend lines/channels to help narrow down the final squiggles.

So far, the low end of our target was missed by one point. This may have been enough, but for now we are allowing for another stab higher.

Continued analysis along with up-and down side targets and trading recommendations are available via the Profit Radar Report.

Simon Maierhofer is the founder of iSPYETF and the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. Barron’s rated iSPYETF as a “trader with a good track record” (click here for Barron’s profile of the Profit Radar Report). The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013, 17.59% in 2014, and 24.52% in 2015.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.