Is Gold Rolling Over Again?

I published the chart with the two CNBC headlines in the January 19 Profit Radar Report. It just illustrates nicely how the change of price affects sentiment and vice versa. A risk trend followers hate and contrarian investors love.

We bought gold at 1,140 (as per the November 5 Profit Radar Report recommendation) when no one wanted to own it.

Now, it’s more fashionable to own the yellow metal again.

This alone is reason to be cautious, but it’s not the only one.

The gold seasonality chart below, featured in the January 25 Profit Radar Report, shows that seasonality soured around January 22.

Although it’s a couple of days old, the assessment published in the January 27 Profit Radar Report is still fully applicable.

The easy money in the gold trade has been made. More attention and mental stamina is required now. Sunday’s PRR showed seasonality is turning bearish. Commercial traders (‘smart money’) have further reduced exposure.

The chart shows that current trade is important from an Elliot Wave perspective. Gold appears to have completed a 3 wave rally. There are now two options:

Gold will trace out a wave 4 correction followed by wave 5 higher. Target for a wave 5 high is around 1,xxx (reserved for subscribers of the Profit Radar Report).

Longer-term, a complete 5-wave rally will be followed by a corrective decline and at least one more rally leg.

Shorter-term, a wave 4 correction could become a pain to manage. Waves 4 tend to seesaw over support/resistance levels, therefore using the trend channel support at 1,275 as stop loss could kick us out at the wrong time.

A 3-wave rally is indicative of a correction and would translate into a relapse to new lows. This option is unlikely, but theoretically possible.

We can either take our profits and run or commit to endure a potentially painful correction in exchange for further gains. I like to keep things simple and recommend taking profits. Lets cash in gold around 1,295 and GLD around 124.20 for a nice 13.5% gain.”

Gold has since dropped to 1,255. The SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEArca: GLD, iShares Gold Trust (NYSEArca: IAU) and Market Vectors Gold Minders ETF (NYSEArca: GDX) also peeled away from their recovery highs. I still think gold, GLD and IAU will see higher highs, but it will take some patience to get there.

Simon Maierhofer is the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013 and 17.59%.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

MACD Triggered ‘Gnarly’ S&P 500 Signal

Living in San Diego, I get to pick up some surfer slang, such as: “Hey dude, this wave was gnarly.”

Coming from Germany, I had never heard the term ‘gnarly’ before. A look at the urban dictionary shows synonyms such as crazy, wicked nasty or rad.

Turns out, in San Diego beach cities, many things are ‘gnarly,’ not just the waves (this could include an accident, girl or even a breakfast burrito).

On January 22, when the S&P 500 closed at 2,064, MACD triggered a ‘gnarly’ buy signal (see green line in chart below). Why gnarly?

Via the Profit Radar Report, I noted the MACD buy signal and warned:

According to proprietary internal supply & demand measures, this recent rally leg has been weak. However, the S&P closed above the 20 and 50-day SMAs for two consecutive days and trend following technicals like MACD have turned positive.

The purpose of the current up move is to lure investors back into stocks and elicit a level of optimism before the hammer drops again.

A reversal lower would certainly baffle many market technicians. My research still favors the odds of a reversal.”

In hindsight, it becomes obvious that the MACD buy signal was indeed wickedly gnarly. The S&P 500 dropped like a rock right after the buy signal. This illustrates the pitfall of basing buy/sell decisions solely on popular gauges, such as the 20 and 50-day SMA or MACD.

Yesterday’s decline triggered a MACD sell signal, but support around 1,988 has held thus far. Depending on today’s close, the S&P 500 (NYSEArca: SPY) may even paint a green reversal candle.

Today’s close could be important for the short-term, but – with or without bounce – I anticipate another leg down as outlined in the January 19 Profit Radar Report:

More follow through strength is likely with resistance at 2,040 – 2,075. The odds for another leg starting at 2,040 – 2,070 are above average. Potential down side target is 1,960 – 1,900. Going short around 2,050 is most attractive from a risk/reward perspective. We do expect new highs eventually, but another leg down first looks to be in the cards.”

Perhaps we get another bounce to 2,075, followed by a drop to 1,960 – 1,900 and new recovery highs thereafter.

Continued updates will be available to subscribers of the Profit Radar Report.

Simon Maierhofer is the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013 and 17.59%.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

Key Commodity Index at Major Inflection Point May Provide Clues for Oil

As MVP of the commodity sector, oil is usually in the spotlight (especially after a dizzying 60% drop) while most of the other commodities operate in the shadow.

The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Commodity Index, the Granddaddy of broad commodity indexes, sports an interesting chart right now.

The index has reached the lower end of a trend channel that’s defined a multi-year down trend.

Is that a buying opportunity? Is oil near a low?

First we should look at the composition of the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Commodity Index.

In 2005, the index was revised from an equal weighted to a 4-tiered grouping system, designed to reflect the significance of each commodity. Here is the group weighting:

  • Agriculture: 41%
  • Energy: 39%
  • Base/Industrial metals: 13%
  • Precious metals: 7%

Crude oil makes up 23%. The next biggest components are gold, natural gas, corn, soybeans, aluminum, copper and live cattle with 6% each. Silver accounts for only 1%.

Since oil is the heavy weight of the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Commodity Index, trend channel support should be watched carefully for anyone fishing for an oil bottom.

Under normal circumstances this would be a low-risk opportunity to buy the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Commodity Index (trend channel could be used to manage risk).

However, there is no Reuters/Jefferies CRB Commodity ETF.

Broad based commodity ETFs include the PowerShares DB Commodity Tracking ETF (NYSEArca: DBC) and iShares GSCI Commodity ETN (NYSEArca: GSG).

DBC has a strong correlation to the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Commodity Index, but the actual chart paints a different story.

DBC already dropped below trend channel support and is near its all-time low. Aside from a Fibonacci projection level at 14.13, there is no technical chart support.

This makes it hard to manage risk effectively. Traders looking to bottom pick should probably use the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Commodity Index trend channel as stop-loss for any long positions. Oil ETFs include the United States Oil ETF (NYSEArca: USO) and iPath Oil ETN (NYSEArca: OIL).

Simon Maierhofer is the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

Will European QE Send Stocks Soaring?

It’s not that we need a chart to show that QE pumps up Wall Street, but here is one anyway.

The obvious question is whether Europeans QE will do the same for European stocks as U.S. QE did for U.S. stocks.

Liquidity drives the markets, so the logically answer is ‘yes’.

However, there are a few other variables.

  • U.S. QE was unleashed when the S&P 500 was near 12-year low. European QE was announced when German and English bourses are at or near all-time highs.
  • The situation in Europe is more fragmented and complex than in the U.S.
  • The U.S. dollar was at a multi-year high when U.S. QE was launched. The euro is at a 11-year low.

Despite all the differences, European QE was received similar to U.S. QE. Here’s what one German politician said:

“QE makes the rich even richer. It is a drug for the stock market. It drives up stocks. But the money should flow in the real economy, not banks.” Sounds familiar, doesn’t it.

Here are a few headlines commenting on the ECB’s move:

  • MarketWatch: Why European QE is bearish for US stocks
  • Fortune: Larry Summers: The ECB’s QE won’t work
  • FoxNews: Five reasons why ECB won’t save continents dying economies

U.S. stocks rallied for years despite all the persistent haters (me being one of them).

The stage seems set for a European stock rally.

However, the Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (NYSEArca: VGK) cautions buyers against rushing in. VKG is about to the reach double technical resistance.

This doesn’t mean it can’t go higher, but buying before a speed bump is rarely prudent. A breakout would be a better reason to buy (and it would offer a good stop-loss level). The charts for five other European ETFs look similar. View Top 5 European ETFs here

What about the regions strongest stock index? Germany’s DAX is trading at all-time highs, and is about 3% above important support at 10,000. Further gains are possible, but a close below 10,000 would put the QE rally on hold.

Unfortunately there’s no ETF that closely tracks the German DAX. The iShares MSCI Germany ETF (NYSEArca: EWG) is severely lagging behind the DAX. Otherwise it would be interesting to buy EWG and short SPY (S&P 500 SPDR) or go long the DAX with a stop-loss just below 10,000.

The U.S. QE experiment has taught us that it’s foolish to bet against the Federal Reserve or its international counter parts … and yet I have a tough time believing that European stocks will take off right away.

Simon Maierhofer is the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

What are the Best Europe ETFs?

Will the European Central Bank’s QE lift European stocks? This question deserves its own article, which can be found here: Will European QE Send Stocks Soaring?

Here is a look at the top five (+1) Europe ETFs:

Top 5 Europe ETFs:

  • Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (NYSEArca: VGK) – 0.12%
  • iShares MSCI EMU ETF (NYSEArca: EZU) – 0.48%
  • WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity ETF (NYSEArca: HEDJ) – 0.58&
  • SPDR Euro STOXX 50 ETF (NYSEArca: FEZ) – 0.29%
  • iShares Europe ETF (NYSEArca: IEV) – 0.60%

ETFs are known for being inexpensive (expense ratios are listed behind the ticker), but there are factors more important than the expense ratio.

For example, the Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF and the iShares Europe ETF have a 15% exposure to Switzerland. The remaining three ETFs have virtually none.

We can’t talk about Europe ETFs and ignore the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) massive currency move. Abandoning the 1.20 EURCHF floor caused a 15% drop in the SIX Swiss Stock Exchange.

Whether the Europe ETF of your choice includes Swiss stocks or not can make a difference going forward. I’m not necessarily advocating one over the other, but investors should be aware.

The WisdomTree Europe Hedge Fund ETF is designed to provide exposure to European equities, while at the same time neutralizing currency fluctuation.

When the euro is weak, the WisdomTree Europe Hedge Fund ETF will beat an un-hedged European equity fund, but when the euro is strong, it will underperform an un-hedged European equity fund.

I happen to believe that the euro will stage a surprising rally in the weeks/months ahead, which – if the case – will render the WisdomTree Europe Hedge Fund ETF ineffective. More detail: The Biggest Trap of European QE

A blend of the Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF and SPDR Euro STOXX 50 ETF seems like a good combination for anyone looking to own European stocks. Is now the time to own European stocks? A detailed analysis can be found here: Will Eurozone QE Send Stocks Higher?

What About Germany?

How about just buying the European leader, German stocks?

There are a number of Germany ETFs, but none of them tracks the Deutscher Aktien Index (DAX) well.

The iShares MSCI Germany ETF (NYSEArca: EWG), the biggest and most popular Germany ETF, owns 59 stocks and claims targeted access to 85% of the German stock market. However, it has a correlation of only 0.59 (on a scale from +1 to -1), and is trading 25% below its all time high, while the DAX is at an all-time high.

If there was a great Germany ETF, it might make sense to go long German stocks and short U.S. stocks (pair trade: buy EWG, sell SPY).

Simon Maierhofer is the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

The Biggest Trap of European QE

The cat is out of the bag. The ECB will buy up to euro60 billion a month from March 2015 to September 2016. Purchased assets will include government bonds, debt securities by European institutions and private-sector bonds.

Why? Eurozone inflation is negative. Deflation is bad news, and pumping money (QE) into financial markets is hoped to fight deflation and spark inflation.

Inflation, by definition, erodes the value of a currency. The obvious conclusion; eurozone QE should send the euro lower.

But if something is too obvious, it can obviously wrong.

Let’s take a look at what U.S. QE did for the U.S. dollar.

The chart below plots the U.S. Dollar Index against the various QE programs.

QE1 saw wild dollar swings, but no discernable down side bias. In fact, the dollar rallied when QE fist started.

QE2 didn’t sink the dollar either and the greenback actually rallied during QE3/4.

Headlines like ‘Why quantitative easing is likely to trigger a collapse of the U.S. Dollar’ proved incorrect.

The euro lost 18% since May 2014. This is one of the most pronounced declines in recent history.

In 2008 the euro lost 23.1% before bouncing back, in 2009/10 21.5%. Technical support for the euro is not far below current trade, so shorting the euro is akin to picking up pennies in front of a train.

Contrary to conventional wisdom, investors should put the CurrencyShares Euro ETF (NYSEArca: FXE) on their shopping list and start exiting the PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish ETF (NYSEArca: UUP).

Simon Maierhofer is the publisher of the Profit Radar ReportThe Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

This Underestimated Indicator is a Powerful S&P 500 Forecasting Tools

Chart gaps are one of the most rudimentary and most effective S&P 500 forecasting tool.

What is a Chart Gap?

A chart gap is a price level where no trading occurred. It occurs when price makes a sharp move up or down, leaving a gap.

Most gaps (at least for stock indexes) occur in the morning. The often reflect underlying strength and at times a temporary change of trend.

How to Use Gaps

Gaps often mark temporary trend changes, but more often they represent ‘unfinished business.’

They are a blank or void on the chart and for whatever reason stock indexes (in particular the S&P 500) almost always fill open gaps eventually. Gaps act like magnets.

Here is where gaps have been most helpful in recent years: We’ve seen a number of shallow pullbacks in 2013 and 2014, and every time stocks dropped by a few percent, investors thought the bull market is over.

Many times however, the S&P 500 (NYSEArca: SPY) started the correction with a chart gap, indicating price will eventually (most times it was sooner rather than later) come back to close the gap.

With an open gap, the S&P 500 basically just dropped its poker face and offered a glimpse in its card. The message: “I’m just bluffing. Don’t worry about the correction, there will be new all-time highs.”

This chart shows some of the more obvious chart gaps and the corresponding comments by the Profit Radar Report.

Chart gaps (along with another indicator I call ‘secret sauce’) told us that pretty much every correction since mid-2013 will be reversed and followed by new all-time highs.

Currently there are two open chart gaps that merit our attention. One quite a bit below and another quite a bit above current trade.

I expect both gaps to be filled. The Profit Radar Report shows in which sequence.

Simon Maierhofer is the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

Smart Fed Fund Money Projects New S&P 500 Lows

The 30-day Federal Funds Rate (FFR) is the rate that banks charge each other for overnight loans to meet their reserve balance requirements. The FFR, in essence, acts as the base rate for all other U.S. interest rates.

With a couple of tweaks the stale FFR can be turned into a forward-looking indicator. Here are the tweaks:

  • We look at FFR sentiment provided by the commitment of traders (COT) report. We are mainly interested in the net positions of commercial traders (considered the ‘smart money’).
  • We shift the COT sentiment data forward by 4 weeks.

We used the FFR to spot onset of last year’s May rally (when everyone was looking for ‘sell in May and go away’). Fed Fund Rate Suggests S&P 500 Rally

The January 4 Profit Radar Report drew attention to the following:

Commercial traders slashed their bullish 30-day Federal Funds Rate (FFR) bets by 37,812 contracts, the largest drop since December 2012. The correlation doesn’t always work, but the biggest drop since December 2012 is noteworthy. The FFR warns of a correction.”

The chart below is an updated version of the one featured in the January 4 Profit Radar Report. It plots the S&P 500 (NYSEArca: SPY) against the net FFR position of commercial traders.

Last week’s COT report showed a solid uptick in commercial’s long positions, but 1) it remains to be seen if the trend continues up and 2) there appears to be more down side before any up tick.

The FFR harmonizes with most other indicators I follow. A more detailed S&P 500 forecast is available here: Short-term S&P 500 Forecast.

Simon Maierhofer is the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

How Does the Swiss Currency Move Affect US Investors?

Here are the most important words of 2015, thus far:

“Die Schweizerische Nationalbank (SNB) hat beschlossen, den Mindestkurs von 1.20 Franken pro Euro per sofort aufzuheben und ihn nicht mehr mit Devisenkäufen durchzusetzen. Der Ausstieg musste überraschend erfolgen.”

Translated: The Swiss National Bank (SNB) determined to immediately abandon the 1.20 EURCHF floor via currency purchases. This move had to be a surprise.

From September 2011 up until a few hours ago, the SNB has printed francs to buy euros. This kept the value of the franc artificially low.

Why Did the SNB Abandon Franc ‘Stability’

According to Thomas Jordan, President of the SNB, the euro and the franc weakened relative to the U.S. dollar. It therefore was no longer justified to enforce the minimum exchange rate.

Jordan said that maintaining the franc cap long-term would make no sense.

The SNBs balance sheet mushroomed 280% since 2008. Unlike other central banks, the SNB owns predominantly foreign assets, subject to significant currency risk.

It couldn’t depress the franc forever, so now apparently was an appropriate time to stop cold turkey.

It is said that the SNB wanted to move before the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB is expected to unleash outright QE at next week’s (Thursday) meeting, which will depress the euro even further (more below).

What Does it Mean for Switzerland

Today was a rough day for Swiss investors as the Swiss Exchange closed 8.67% lower. Longer-term, a strong franc is obviously bad for Swiss export and tourism. Swatch CEO Hayed said: “It is a terrible day for corporate Switzerland.”

The surprising rogue SNB move threatens its credibility with market participants worldwide and will make cooperation with the ECB harder.

But the Swiss are no Alpine dummies; they must have weighed the pros and cons and made a decision that’s best for them, a luxury some European Union countries no longer have.

A German/Swiss saying goes something like this: The soup is never eaten as hot as it’s cooked. Although the SNBs decision is today’s ‘hot’ news, its effect tomorrow may only be lukewarm.

Of course, another saying says: You crumbled the cracker in the soup, now you’ve got to eat it (kind of like: you lie in the bed you made).

What Does it Mean for U.S. Investors

Many U.S. hedge funds were short the Swiss franc … and were crushed. My first reaction is that a dose of reality might be an educational change for our financial engineers. It remains to be seen what margin calls will mean for the market.

Most individual investors don’t invest in Swiss currency (NYSEArca: FXF) or swiss stocks (NYSEArca: EWL), so the direct exposure and damage is limited. Broad international ETFs like the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (NYSEArca: EFA) are actually up today.

U.S. stocks are down again, but that may or may not have been caused by the SNB.

Perhaps more importantly, gold prices soared 2.5%. Via the November 5 Profit Radar Report, I made the (at the time controversial) recommendation to buy gold at 1,140 and GLD at 111.08 and stated that: “Buying and holding gold appears to be one of the best opportunities for the remainder of 2014 and 2015.”

An interesting tidbit: Gold prices topped in September 2011 when Switzerland started to cap the franc.

The next big opportunity may be buying the euro. The ECB is expected to unleash the European version of QE, which theoretically will depress the euro even further.

However, the euro (NYSEArca: FXE) decline is long in the tooth and investor sentiment is extreme. The odds of a major euro rally starting sometime in the next two weeks are high.

I’ll try to identify a low-risk entry point and publish it in the Profit Radar Report.

Simon Maierhofer is the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

Short-term S&P 500 Forecast

My January 4 article included a longer-term S&P 500 forecast. You may view the longer-term forecast here (it even includes one recent update): Initial 2015 S&P 500 Forecast.

Today’s update will be more short-term in nature.

Allow me to start out with an observation (and chart) shared in the January 11 Profit Radar Report:

The market always tries to separate as many people as possible from their money, and it is very successful at it. In fact, the market is a master in ‘psychological warfare.’ As a mental exercise, I sometimes try to imagine which market move would surprise most investors.

Since mid-2013 we’ve had no less than seven obvious V-shaped recoveries. Is number eight about to follow? The majority of investors may think so. If that were the case, another leg down prior to a new all-time high would hurt many and therefore fit the market’s MO.

Of course, one could have made the same argument after V-shaped bottom #5, #6 or #7. The red circle shows that the market pulled back from double trend line resistance. This time could be different.

I personally favor the odds of another leg down. Key support is around 2,016 and 1,992.44.”

The S&P 500 (NYSEArca: SPY) tested (and bounced from) 1,992 yesterday and again today.

The VIX/VXN ratio signaled an extreme reading yesterday, which may lead to a bounce, but there doesn’t appear to be enough (panic) selling for a more last low. More details about the VIX indicator here: VIX Options Traders Ratio Signals S&P 500 Bounce

With or without bounce, another low is likely. In fact, a bounce may offer an even better ‘sell the pop’ entry point to go short.

I’m not unconditionally married to that outlook, but it would take a move above resistance to change it. Key resistance and down side target levels are available to subscribers of the Profit Radar Report.

Simon Maierhofer is the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates. All Profit Radar Report recommendations resulted in a 59.51% net gain in 2013.

Follow Simon on Twitter @ iSPYETF or sign up for the FREE iSPYETF Newsletter to get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.